Emerging markets and developing economies are navigating a complex fiscal landscape marked by rising debt costs and shrinking fiscal space. Traditional rules-based frameworks, once seen as the cornerstone of fiscal discipline, are increasingly showing their limitations. Their rigidity stifles flexibility, while overlapping rules create confusion and inefficiencies. 

This report offers a rethink: moving beyond rigid debt rules to embrace flexible debt anchors that safeguard long-term sustainability without sacrificing the ability to respond to shocks. By embedding these anchors within a comprehensive fiscal regime (complete with clear objectives, strategic planning, and independent oversight), governments can build a more resilient, coherent framework. Enhanced transparency and accountability are central to restoring market and public trust, while independent institutions like fiscal councils play a crucial role in guiding policy toward sustainable debt management. 

For those shaping fiscal rules, this research provide a path to more effective, adaptable frameworks that meet today’s challenges head-on.

Canada's oil and gas industry is highly exposed to shifting international markets, with 81% of oil and 44% of gas exported abroad. As a result, the profitability of Canadian production is vulnerable to weakening international demand, rising competition, and climate-related trade risks. 

Using three oil and gas demand scenarios from the International Energy Agency and global market modelling by Rystad Energy, this report finds the following:

• Up to 66% of future capital investments in Canadian oil and gas projects (2025–2040) are at risk of becoming stranded under a 1.5°C climate scenario. The percentage of stranded investments could be even higher in a world where carbon capture and storage technologies underperform.
• Even under current global policies, 5% of projected investments may fail to deliver economic returns. Under announced climate policies, including existing net-zero pledges, the share of stranded forecasted investments rises to 39%.
• Economic risks to investors, industry, and governments could be mitigated in all three demand scenarios by restricting future oil and gas development in Canada and abroad. 

It has long been assumed that Canada's best economic interests lie in the continued expansion of oil and gas production. Instead, this analysis suggests a new paradigm whereby the most efficient way to leverage the economic potential of Canada's oil and gas industry is to limit its expansion while using the remaining revenues to accelerate growth in clean industries consistent with a changing global economy.

This set of key indicators—selected based on federal laws, data availability, and government influence—includes 18 quantitative and qualitative measurements. 

Key indicators for tracking progress on sustainable jobs 

Risk and readiness

Economic exposure

• Community susceptibility: Workforce disruption based on employment in high-emitting industries and transition-vulnerable sectors.
• Fossil fuel revenue dependence: Percentage of total government revenues derived from fossil fuel-related activities (including direct revenues from fossil fuel taxes and royalties and indirect revenues from income taxes of fossil fuel workers).

Institutional preparedness

• Social protection coverage: Share of the population covered by employment insurance by equity-deserving group and by sector. 

Response

Governance and processes

• Governance capacity: Level of resources allocated to a formalized government body (or bodies) responsible for advancing sustainable jobs.
• Indigenous partnership in governance: Extent of Indigenous partnerships and decision-making authority in the sustainable jobs governance processes, as assessed by Indigenous Peoples.
• Social dialogue engagement: Number of workers and community members engaged in tripartite social dialogues and stakeholder forums held in the design, monitoring, and implementation of sustainable jobs policies.
• Private sector regulations: Presence and strength of regulations requiring corporate disclosure and participation related to the transition (e.g., notice of plant closures, number and demographics of affected workers, obligation to fund retraining).
• Policies managing declining industries: Presence of policies to manage the impacts of declining industries, including the fossil fuel industry, and mandate emissions reductions. 

Results

Net-zero alignment and economic diversification

• Climate alignment: Extent to which sustainable jobs plans commit to the Paris Agreement and national or regional climate objectives.
• Relative GDP growth: GDP in low-carbon industries compared to GDP in high-carbon industries and overall GDP.

Employment and decent work

• Net new sustainable jobs: Number of net new sustainable jobs created by the sector and region per 1,000 jobs.
• Workforce retraining: Number of workers receiving training to transition into or enter sustainable jobs by equity-deserving group.
• Displaced worker support: Proportion of displaced workers with access to social security, relocation assistance, and affordable housing.
• Sustainable job compensation: Annual (median) compensation in sustainable jobs by sector, compared to median compensation across all jobs.
• Sustainable job retention rate: Proportion of employees in sustainable jobs that retain their jobs for one year or more.
• Collective agreement coverage: Proportion of workers in sustainable jobs covered by a collective agreement by sector relative to the average across the sector.
• Employment equity: Employment rate of underrepresented groups (Indigenous Peoples, women and gender-diverse peoples, people with disabilities, Black and other racialized individuals, 2SLGBTQI+, and other equity-seeking groups) in sustainable jobs.

Social equity

• Income inequality: Distribution of income across a population, indicating the extent of inequality (Gini coefficient). 

These proposed indicators provide a starting point for tracking sustainable jobs, but they should ultimately be refined through a collaborative process with tripartite stakeholders (workers, employers, and government), as well as with affected Indigenous governments and communities.

Since the last Financing for Development conference in Addis Ababa in 2015, development finance has faced increasing complexity and systemic risks, including reductions in aid, trade fragmentation, and rising debt vulnerabilities. This report presents a framework to identify the most critical sources of finance for low-income countries and evaluates how geopolitical shifts and systemic risks affect their stability. By analyzing the scale and exposure of financial flows, it highlights priority policy actions for countries to safeguard development progress amid a volatile global environment at the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development. 

In a context characterized by a “lowest common denominator” approach to international cooperation, focused coordination is both necessary and pragmatic. Efforts to strengthen domestic resource mobilization must be supported by enhanced international cooperation on debt relief, fair trade, and development assistance transparency. This targeted strategy aims to future-proof development finance by addressing geopolitical risks and guiding policy priorities toward a more resilient global financing agenda.

Join our Side-Event at FfD4

Are you in Seville for the conference? Join our side-event Navigating Uncertainty: Implementing the 4th Financing for Development Agenda in a Fragmented World

Event details

Date: July 2, 2025
Time: 8:30 AM CEST
Venue: FIBES Sevilla Exhibition and Conference Centre, side event room 22

Financing is an important enabling factor for effective, inclusive NAP processes. Developing countries need access to sufficient finance throughout the NAP process from a diversity of sources and through mechanisms that do not exacerbate existing debt burdens. 

This review of 59 multi-sector NAP documents sheds light on how developing countries are addressing adaptation finance issues. The report also highlights good practices and identifies areas for improvement to better support countries in identifying, prioritizing, and mobilizing adaptation finance.

Vietnam’s northern coastal region, including the DEEP C Industrial Zone in Hai Phong, faces growing threats from sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion. These impacts endanger critical economic infrastructure and the livelihoods of over 12,000 workers and residents. While traditional grey infrastructure, such as sea dikes, is already in place, additional nature-based solutions are needed to strengthen long-term climate resilience. 

To address these risks, DEEP C and its partners are planting a 70-hectare mangrove belt along the Nam Dinh Vu Sea dike. This intervention is designed primarily to reduce erosion and storm surge impacts, while also delivering benefits for biodiversity, fisheries, and nearby communities. It contributes to the transformation of DEEP C into a more sustainable, eco-industrial zone aligned with international standards. 

This SAVi assessment evaluates two implementation pathways: the Soil Accumulation scenario, which relies on natural sediment buildup before planting, and the Soil Transfer scenario, which involves placing soil at the site to enable earlier planting. Both are modelled under varying assumptions for economic growth and mangrove efficiency. 

The valuation examined the extent to which mangroves can reduce flood damage, boost local fisheries and tourism, increase property values, and lower maintenance costs for the sea dike. 

The results show that mangrove planting delivers strong benefits, particularly in high-growth, high-risk scenarios. For every VND 1 invested, the Soil Accumulation scenario yields up to VND 3.42 in return, resulting in net benefits of over VND 284 billion (USD 11.2 million). 

Benefits include avoided flood damage, increased property values, improved public revenues, and environmental gains such as carbon storage, reduced dike maintenance, and improved erosion control along the coastline. 

Ultimately, the study confirms that integrating mangrove planting into coastal infrastructure planning is a cost-effective strategy for reducing climate risks, controlling erosion, protecting economic assets, and delivering long-term social and environmental value.

Gaining access to markets and control over resources is essential for women’s economic empowerment, enabling them to make informed choices about how to use and benefit from those resources. 

This case study examines how women coffee farmers in Rwanda are driving change through women's associations and cooperatives. As a group, the women have achieved peer-to-peer training, income diversification, direct links to buyers, women-made marketing, and community reinvestment, adopting sustainable agricultural practices, adding value to coffee production, and securing access to high-value markets. As a result, they have strengthened both their livelihoods and their communities. 

We highlight the role of three women’s associations and cooperatives (Rambagirakawa–Dukunde Kawa Musasa, Hingakawa–Abakundakawa, and Twongere Umusaruro wa Kawa) in empowering their members economically. The study offers recommendations to Rwanda’s National Agricultural Export Development Board and other stakeholders on how to support these associations in advancing women’s economic empowerment. 

Our insights are drawn from open-ended interviews with cooperative members and Angelique Karakezi, managing director of Rwashoscco, a farmer-owned company that produces and exports Rwandan coffee, including the women-produced brand Angelique's Finest. 

In our conversations, we explored the groups' primary goals, the key factors contributing to their success, and the disparities in access to training in sustainable agriculture and market opportunities.

The report highlights the urgent need to bridge the implementation of the Paris Agreement and the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. These two landmark agreements are deeply interconnected, and success in one depends on progress in the other. Countries' efforts to renew their respective commitments under the relevant conventions represent an important and timely opportunity to foster synergies to effectively address the challenges linked to climate change and biodiversity loss and connect ongoing processes. 

Drawing from 10 national case studies—including Brazil, Colombia, Madagascar, and Indonesia—the publication offers concrete examples of how countries are creating linkages between their National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plans and nationally determined contributions. It outlines key strategies, common barriers, and innovative practices to build more coherent national approaches that maximize co-benefits for climate and biodiversity. 

This resource is intended for government planners, national focal points, civil society, and local communities seeking to strengthen coordination between the two agendas. It offers lessons, tools, and insights to guide future policy processes and implementation efforts.

This report looks at the use of mining tax incentives in the African continent and offers guidance for countries to reform their incentive frameworks and adopt a strategic approach. Countries should rethink the use of harmful incentives. Incentives should be time-bound, targeted, monitored, and backed by cost-benefit analysis. This approach not only protects revenues, but it also enables governments to support value addition, foster local industries, and deliver on the Sustainable Development Goals. 

The publication was developed in collaboration with the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and is designed to support policy-makers, tax officials, development partners, and civil society actors working to strengthen domestic resource mobilization and improve the governance of Africa's mineral wealth.

The report shows the following:

• Up to 85% of oil in Petrobras' new projects is not economically viable to extract in a scenario compatible with holding global warming to 1.5°C, the international goal. Petrobras' riskiest ventures would only be profitable in a world where global warming exceeds 2.4°C.
• Petrobras plans to sink USD 97 billion into exploration, production, transportation, and refining of oil and gas from 2025 to 2029. Only 15% of its budget is to decarbonize operations and diversify into clean energy.
• Petrobras lags behind leading oil and gas companies on climate performance measures. There is significant room for improvement in the carbon intensity of its products, emissions targets, and diversification strategy.