November 19, 2024, Baku — Europe’s demand for gas is contributing to expansion of liquid natural gas (LNG) projects in Mozambique, Nigeria, and Senegal. This favours the interests of European oil and gas companies over those of African countries, a new report shows.

The companies, which include UK-based BP, France’s TotalEnergies, and Italy’s Eni, stand to benefit from near-term revenues, finds the report A Precarious Pursuit by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). Under their contracts, African governments are often expected to wait until the mid-2030s or 2040s for significant returns.

These delays could prove economically disastrous to the African nations involved. LNG demand may have already peaked in Europe, and will likely decline globally from 2030, according to the International Energy Agency, and the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators.

“Europe clamping down on fossil fuels at home while expanding gas exploration and LNG terminals in Africa is problematic,” said Bathandwa Vazi, Policy Advisor at IISD and one of the paper's co-authors.

She added: “The highly competitive LNG markets seen since 2022 are now forecast to give way to a supply glut, with falling prices, tighter margins, and lower profits for exporters. This price risk is being shouldered by countries least equipped to deal with it.”

European governments should work with African nations to expand access to renewable energy and green jobs, not lock them into extractive sectors with high carbon emissions, report authors say.

Richard Bridle, a senior policy advisor at IISD, said: “Europe’s support for LNG infrastructure in Africa is not the product of mutually respectful enterprise. It locks African nations into unstable fossil fuel-based economies, when they could be leapfrogging to clean energy and green jobs.

“At the ‘finance COP’, European governments must deliver the support African countries need to move beyond fossil fuels and harness their abundant renewable resources.”

LNG development in Africa intensified following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as Europe sought to diversify supplies away from Russian gas.

For sub-Saharan economies, the potential to benefit from European gas demand may have been overstated, the research cautions. As global net-zero targets proliferate and the price of renewable energy falls, long-term LNG demand is uncertain. Meanwhile new projects are set to deliver a glut of LNG supplies later this decade, depressing prices.

The relatively high cost of LNG production in Africa makes African producers particularly vulnerable to market volatility, as lower global prices could make these projects unprofitable.

Media Contacts:

Bathandwa Vazi, Policy Advisor, Energy (Cape Town) – [email protected]

Richard Bridle, Senior Policy Advisor, Energy (Europe) – [email protected]

Vance Culbert, Senior Policy Advisor, Energy (Baku) – [email protected]

Megan Darby, Senior Communications Officer, Energy (Baku) – [email protected]

November 19, 2024, Baku, Azerbaijan—Today on the sidelines of the UN Climate Conference in Baku (COP 29), the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Colombia joined the international Coalition on Phasing Out Fossil Fuel Incentives Including Subsidies (COFFIS).

COFFIS is a coalition of governments working together to remove barriers and facilitate transparency toward the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies.

It now has 16 member countries, including Austria, the federal government of Antigua and Barbuda, Belgium, Canada, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

Ed Miliband, the UK Energy Secretary, said:

“Our mission is to make the UK a clean energy superpower, getting off the rollercoaster of international fossil fuels and switching to homegrown energy in the hands of the British people.

“By joining the Coalition on Phasing Out Fossil Fuel Incentives Including Subsidies, we are showing the UK is back in the climate business and committed to working with partners to tackle this generational crisis.”

Simon Watts, Minister for Climate Change of New Zealand, said:

“New Zealand is proud to join this joint statement on Fossil Fuel Subsidies and its implementing Coalition on phasing out Fossil Fuel Incentives including Subsidies. This important initiative fits well with New Zealand’s leadership of the Friends of Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform Group and our role as Chair of the recently signed Agreement on Climate Change Trade and Sustainability.”

Patricia Fuller, President and CEO, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) said:

“We warmly welcome New Zealand, Colombia, and the United Kingdom as new members of the COFFIS coalition. Shifting public financial flows from fossil fuels to clean energy will be critical to implement the COP 28 decision to transition away from fossil fuels. These subsidies reached a record USD 1.5 trillion in in 2022 and COFFIS members have taken the decision to phase out fossil fuel subsidies in a transparent manner. As a secretariat of the coalition, IISD will continue to promote global best practice in fossil fuel subsidies phase out and support its members in reaching this objective. We also continue to look to expand the coalition and anticipate more countries to join soon.”

World governments have previously pledged to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies—including the G20 members in 2009 and all parties to the UNFCCC at COP 26 in Glasgow in 2021. However, the implementation of these commitments has been slow, with subsidies globally reaching a record USD 1.5 trillion in 2022.

COFFIS, launched by the Netherlands at COP 28 in Dubai, was established to accelerate the phase-out of domestic fossil fuel subsidies and encourage international cooperation to help maintain a level playing field between countries.

Removing fossil fuel subsidies remains a key piece of the puzzle in achieving the global commitment to transition away from fossil fuels, adopted by parties at COP 28 in Dubai. Phasing out this support would not only increase the fiscal space in national budgets to finance the clean energy transition and support social issues, but also create a level playing field between fossil fuels and clean energy.

COFFIS members are focusing their work around three pillars:

1. Transparency: Increasing transparency by producing an overview of their fossil fuel subsidies. As part of these efforts, the first member countries have produced their fossil fuel subsidy inventories, which are available here.
2. International agreements: Identifying and addressing international barriers to phasing out fossil subsidies, such as restricting taxation on aviation and shipping fuels.
3. National action: Developing national strategies for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.

By signing up to COFFIS, member countries commit to two concrete actions: publish an inventory of their fossil fuel subsidies a year after joining, and then start developing national action plans for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. This approach helps translate international commitments on phasing out fossil fuel subsidies into specific national actions to remove this support.

Media Contacts

Aia Brnic, Communications Manager, IISD (COFFIS Secretariat): [email protected], +41787634546

Pieter ten Bruggencate, Senior Spokesman Climate & Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate, the Netherlands: [email protected]

COFFIS website: https://www.iisd.org/coffis/
 

October 24, 2024 — Governments agreed at last year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 28) to transition away from fossil fuels. Yet as the next round of United Nations climate talks approaches, some countries are preparing for an oil and gas exploration spree.

Global data from research company Rystad, analyzed by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, forecasts a strong uptick in exploration licensing. If fully exploited, oil and gas reserves set to be licensed for exploration in the next 6 months would emit 15 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. That is nearly as much as the United States’ and China’s combined emissions in 2022.

The 10 countries with the biggest licensing plans, in terms of embodied emissions, are China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Indonesia, the United States, Iran, Angola, Australia, Nigeria, and India.

There is no room for new oil and gas fields under a 1.5°C global warming limit, according to peer-reviewed research.

“These forecasts are worrying. Oil and gas expansion is the opposite of a transition away from fossil fuels," says Eduardo Posada, a policy analyst at IISD. “Not all forecast exploration licences materialize, so there is still an opportunity to prevent this expansion boom. Governments can defer or cancel licensing rounds and companies can choose not to invest in exploration.”

IISD's Carbon Minefields newsletter tracks the climate impact of global oil and gas licences awarded on a monthly basis.

In the past 12 months, the global oil and gas exploration licences awarded could lead to an estimated 2 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions over the lifetime of the projects.

The 10 biggest licence issuers, by embodied emissions, include Norway, the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia. These are rich countries that are not highly dependent on oil and gas revenues and have the means to diversify their economies. One of them is taking steps in that direction.

In July, a new UK government won the election, promising to stop issuing licences for new oil and gas fields. It has also announced a “skills passport” to help oil and gas workers transfer their skills to other sectors. A new state-owned clean energy company, Great British Energy, will be based in Aberdeen, a gateway city for North Sea oil fields.

Olivier Bois von Kursk, policy advisor at IISD, says: “Reinventing communities built on oil and gas jobs is not easy, but it’s necessary to meet our climate goals. The onus is on rich countries to show how it can be done, by investing in clean energy, green jobs, and social safety nets.”

Last year’s climate talks host, the United Arab Emirates, and next year’s, Brazil, are also among the top 10 expanders in the past 12 months.

Notes for Editors

1. October Edition | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor 
2. No New Fossil Fuel Projects: The logical first step in a transition to clean energy 
3. How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans 
4. COP28 Agreement Signals “Beginning of the End” of the Fossil Fuel Era (UN Climate Change press release)

Media Contact

Megan Darby, Senior Communications Officer, IISD: [email protected]

September 30, 2024 – G20 governments are spending three times as much on fossil fuels as renewables, research by the International Institute for Sustainable Development shows.

In the first inventory of its kind, IISD tracked the public financial support G20 governments delivered to renewable power, grids, and storage over the past 4 years. In 2023, that renewable support was at least USD 168 billion, compared to an estimated USD 535 billion in fossil fuel subsidies.

The vast majority (95%) of this renewables support was delivered by rich countries and China. EU countries collectively invested USD 340 billion in renewables over 2020–23, with Germany leading the way and putting 1.04% of its GDP into the sector. The United States delivered USD 140 billion and China USD 119 billion. Many emerging economies are at risk of getting left behind in the clean energy transition.

“The falling cost of renewable technologies does not mean governments can get complacent,” says Tara Laan, IISD lead on incentivizing renewables. “They need to scale up public financial support to accelerate the clean energy transition and extend the benefits to all.”

To meet a global goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, the International Energy Agency estimates that investment in the sector needs to double from current levels of around USD 1.1 trillion per year. Assuming the relationship between public and private investment remains consistent, G20 governments may need to double their financial support to facilitate this.

Strategic support for renewables is good value for taxpayers. It delivers cheap, safe, clean energy and reduces exposure to geopolitical risk. In G20 countries in 2023, every dollar in public support for renewable power and integration leveraged over 6 dollars of investment. Globally, the ratio of subsidies to total investment in fossil fuels was around 3:4—meaning that every 3 dollars of government subsidies (for production and consumption) leveraged only one additional dollar of investment.

Public financial support can have the most impact when it addresses barriers to deployment like high borrowing costs, grid bottlenecks, and storage needs.

Indira Urazova, policy analyst at IISD, says: “Tipping points theory tells us that governments can speed up the energy transition through strategic policy interventions. Despite rapid progress in some countries, deployment of renewables remains slow in most of the developing world. Public financial support will be crucial to accelerate the transition worldwide.”

To close the investment gap for renewables, G20 governments can 

• align national targets for renewable deployment with the global tripling pledge, backed by implementation plans, and include those plans in the next round of national climate plans (NDCs) due for submission to the UN climate body in early 2025;
• level the playing field by eliminating fossil fuel subsidies in a socially responsible way;
• channel aid and international public finance to renewable energy deployment in lower-income countries, including through the new climate finance goal under negotiation in this year’s UN climate conference (COP 29). 

Notes for Editors 

1. Public Financial Support for Renewable Power Generation and Integration in the G20 Countries
2. Unlocking Clean Power for All: How tipping points theory can guide effective use of public funds
3. COP28: Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge 

Media Contact

Megan Darby, senior communications officer, IISD: [email protected] 

September 24, 2024 – The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is calling on governments to deliver ambitious, specific, and actionable national climate plans for the coming decade. We have signed an open letter setting out ten tests for 1.5°C-aligned plans and joined Mission 2025 to show our support for governments stepping up. Both initiatives come as the Troika of UN climate presidencies 2023-25—UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil—are hosting a a high-level event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly Thursday to mobilize 1.5°C-aligned action.

Due in early 2025, these nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement are the first test of the COP 28 agreement to transition away from fossil fuels. In previous rounds, most major producers of coal, oil, and gas either did not mention the sector or said they planned to continue or increase production.

“Claiming to lead on climate while continuing the expansion of oil, gas, and coal production is indefensible at this point,” says Natalie Jones, policy advisor at IISD. “Governments need a plan for reducing reliance on fossil fuel production. The bare minimum is ending new exploration licensing. This is the moment to get serious about the carbon budget.”

Peer-reviewed science shows there is no room for new coal, oil, and gas development under the 1.5°C global warming limit agreed in Paris. In 1.5°C-aligned scenarios, coal production declines by 95% by 2050 and oil and gas production by at least 65%.

To align with 1.5°C, NDCs should include a commitment to no new coal, oil, and gas exploration licences, as well as target dates for ending public financial flows for fossil fuels and winding down production. To be credible, these targets should be coupled with plans to diversify fossil fuel-based economies and ease the transition for affected workers and communities.

Finance is key to unlocking ambition. Governments must agree on a robust climate finance package at the next UN climate summit in November, including support for transition in fossil fuel-producing countries in the Global South.

All countries, rich and poor, can stop sending public money in the wrong direction. Globally, governments spent at least USD 1.5 trillion on fossil fuel subsidies in 2022, worsening climate pollution and holding back the shift to clean energy. NDCs should, in line with existing commitments, include clear and ambitious target years to eliminate these subsidies and commit to developing national roadmaps that guide implementation. Doing so frees up the public budget for social priorities like education, health care, clean energy, and poverty alleviation. Developed countries can channel some of the money saved into climate finance.

“Despite years of promises, progress on ending fossil fuel subsidies has been painfully slow,” says Chris Beaton, a director with the IISD Energy Program. “Governments must support people, not fuels. That means repurposing subsidies, public finance, and state companies’ investments for social protection and the clean energy transition.”

Notes for editors

1. UN TV Webcast 
2. Presidencies Troika Letter To Parties 
3. 10 tests for countries’ new climate plans that will make or break 1.5°C
4. Global coalition launches to boost government climate plans ahead of critical UN deadline 
5. How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans 
6. How the UNFCCC Can Tackle Fossil Fuel Subsidies at COP 28 and Beyond

Media Contact

Megan Darby, senior communications officer, IISD: [email protected]

Senegal’s plan to drive economic growth through exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG)—largely to Europe—is a gamble, new research warns, as forecasts indicate an imminent decline in international demand for gas due to countries pursuing decarbonization targets.

Major investment in LNG could ultimately leave Senegal over-dependent on uncertain fossil fuel markets, at risk of stranded assets, and unable to address energy security concerns. These fossil fuels will simultaneously take a heavy toll on the environment and local livelihoods, according to a report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

A key issue is the 8–10-year LNG production timeline in sub-Saharan Africa. New projects may not be operational before the mid-2030s—yet European demand is forecast to peak by 2025, and the International Energy Agency’s current global net-zero energy scenario suggests falling global demand for fossil fuels by 2050, with likely impacts on short- and long-term profitability.

Meanwhile, there is an international race to exploit gas reserves, partly in response to sanctions on Russia, which have heightened European demand. As a result, Senegal faces increasing competition from established producing nations, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United States, as well as other African countries seeking to expand production and boost their economies, such as Nigeria and Mozambique.

“The Senegalese government is gambling that LNG projects will continue to operate profitably for years or even decades to come, despite considerable warning signs that this is unlikely to occur,” said Bathandwa Vazi, Policy Advisor at IISD.

“As a new player in the LNG space, Senegal must anticipate potential risks, including increased competition, declining demand, low government revenues, and industry pressure to favour exporting gas rather than boosting domestic energy security.”

The Senegalese government has said it plans to improve domestic energy access. Electricity is currently only available to 75% of the population—and a significant portion of this is supplied from LNG production. However, the research warns that improved domestic access will require investment in pipeline infrastructure and power plant conversions for domestic gas consumption, posing further financial viability challenges. Therefore, LNG financiers in Senegal may favour projects committed to exporting more production, potentially neglecting national demand.

Cheaper Renewable Energy

Meanwhile, the falling cost of renewable energy has already had a positive impact on the economy and helped Senegal hit its renewables targets under its nationally determined contribution. The country aims to increase renewable energy to 40% of its electricity mix by 2030.

Domestic renewable energy production poses far fewer risks than LNG, according to the authors of the report. Vazi added: “The Senegalese government should align fiscal policies and incentives with sustainability objectives to incentivize responsible investment in clean energy and promote a just transition toward a low-carbon economy. This will also help address the worsening climate crisis.”

The report notes that Senegal already faces a range of climate-related challenges, including heat stress, shifting malaria patterns, and rising sea levels—a growing threat to the country's urban coastal areas, which accommodate a large portion of the population and industrial activity.

Gas exploration since 2014 has already raised concerns about the industry’s impact, the authors say, with one gas field located close to a significant cold-water coral reef. LNG will be stored on floating facilities located 10 km offshore, posing environmental risks from potential accidents or leaks.

Coastal communities close to LNG activity have already experienced socio-economic issues linked directly to LNG production, which affect women and youth the most. Fishing is a key economic activity and source of income for communities in this region; however, many fishermen have already lost their jobs due to LNG exploration work, which has restricted access to fertile fishing areas.

Media Contacts:

Bathandwa Vazi, Policy Advisor, Energy – [email protected]
Harry Cockburn, Communications Consultant, Energy – [email protected]

September 17, 2024, Ottawa—Canadian taxpayers could end up contributing up to CAD 18.8 billion in subsidies to the Trans Mountain Pipeline if the federal government continues charging discounted transportation tolls to the oil industry, according to a new report from the International Institute for Sustainable Development released today. 

The report, Assessment of Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Canada: A Case Study of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, shows the Canadian government is subsidizing the oil industry through these discounted tolls, which fail to cover the costs of building and operating the expanded pipeline. In 2022, the federal government committed to stop using public funds for the pipeline project. 

"Using taxpayer money to subsidize the oil industry is unfair and inconsistent with Canadian policy to eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies,” said Thomas Gunton, author of the report and professor in the Resource and Environmental Planning Program at Simon Fraser University. “The government needs to follow its stated policy and phase out the subsidy on TMP as soon as possible.”

When the government bought TMP from Kinder Morgan in 2013, it did not renegotiate the toll fees and did not provide an updated estimate of the costs of completing the expanded pipeline. Consequently, according to the report, the current fees being charged are based on 2017 figures and are vastly lower than they should be. Based on 2024 figures, the based fixed tolls charged should be CAD 24.53 per barrel instead of the current proposed rate of CAD 11.37 per barrel. If the correct toll rate was charged, or a levy was introduced to recover the full cost, the subsidy could be phased out, saving the equivalent of CAD 1,255 per Canadian household. 

The report notes that, although the size of the subsidy could vary between CAD 8.7 billion and CAD 18.8 billion, depending on future shipping volumes and transportation cost estimates, there is no likely scenario in which the government will recover its investment in TMP. 

If and when the government sells TMP, the selling price will be well below the approximate CAD 37.5 billion the government has invested, and Canadian taxpayers will incur a significant loss.  

As a solution, the report recommends the government implement a cost recovery levy on all oil pipeline shipments from Western Canada, including TMP. In doing so, the government can effectively recover the losses and remove the subsidy to the oil industry.  

In December 2022, Canada ended financial support for all unabated fossil fuel projects abroad and, most recently, in July 2023, released a new framework to deliver on its commitment to end all inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Yet the report finds that the government's investment in the TMP is a subsidy under both Canadian and WTO definitions as it involves direct transfers of funds (e.g., grants, loans, and equity infusion) and potential direct transfers of funds or liabilities (e.g., loan guarantees), goods and services beyond general infrastructure, and benefit of tolls below marketplace costs, thus resulting in significant foregone government revenue.  

“If Canada is serious about its climate goals, it must phase out all subsidies, including those supporting TMP, and fully align its actions with its commitments,” said Gunton. “By acting promptly, the government can relieve Canadian taxpayers of this burden and recoup its investment in TMP.”

Media Contact:

For more information or to interview Thomas Gunton, please contact Trish Tervit: [email protected]

August 28, 2024 — Signatories of the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) have cut their international public finance for fossil fuels dramatically since signing the agreement but are underdelivering on the clean finance pledge, a new report shows. 

Under the CETP, 39 countries and public finance institutions made a world-first pledge at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 26) to end international public finance to fossil fuels. A year after the deadline, most CETP signatories—including Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and the European Investment Bank—have met their promise. Collectively, signatories sent USD 5.2 billion to the fossil fuel sector in 2023, a reduction of up to two thirds from a 2019–2021 baseline. The pact is working.

However, signatories are making less progress on their commitment to prioritize support for clean energy. In 2023, CETP members delivered USD 21.3 billion to clean energy, an increase of just 16% from the 2019–2021 baseline and less than the USD 26 billion delivered in 2022. Most of this went to developed countries—Spain, Germany, and Poland were the three biggest recipients. Of finance to lower- and lower-middle-income countries, 83% was delivered as loans, contributing to the worst debt crisis in history.

Natalie Jones, lead author of the report and policy advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, says: “It's great to see leaders axing international public finance to coal, oil, and gas, which is incompatible with a safe climate. Now they must match that with scaled-up investment in clean energy for all, including targeted support for the countries that need it most.”

Some CETP members either failed to update their policies or partially restricted fossil fuel finance but left big loopholes. The United States, Italy, and Germany reduced but did not eliminate support for coal, oil, and gas, while Switzerland increased it.

Adam McGibbon, campaign strategist at Oil Change International and report co-author, says: “The CETP is a global success story that’s having a real-world impact in shifting finance away from fossil fuels—but this is despite the broken promises of the U.S., Italy, Germany, and Switzerland. These countries need to live up to the promise they made in Glasgow or face growing international pressure to change.”

If fully implemented, the CETP could shift USD 28 billion a year from fossil fuels to clean energy. With the next round of climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, this November set to focus on finance, this would send an important signal, the report highlights.

The report Out With the Old, Slow With the New, published today, sets out five ways for CETP members to build on their progress: 

1. Adopt robust fossil fuel exclusion policies across all agencies providing international public finance if they have not yet done so. 
2. Set ambitious targets for scaling up clean energy finance, with exclusions for unproven solutions like blue hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. 
3. Target support to countries that need it most, with grants and highly concessional instruments for lower-income countries. 
4. Update national and institutional policies and strategies to prioritize international support for clean energy. 
5. Match international policies with domestic climate leadership by ending domestic fossil fuel finance and subsidies, banning new licences for oil and gas production, and phasing out fossil fuel extraction on a globally just and 1.5°C-aligned timeline.

Notes for editors

Out With the Old, Slow With the New: Countries Are Underdelivering on Fossil-to-Clean Energy Finance Pledge

Clean Energy Transition Partnership

Media Contact 

Megan Darby, senior communications officer, IISD: [email protected] 

August 23, 2024 — The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the International Institute for Sustainable Development are strengthening their cooperation to advance sustainable development across the region.

COMESA and IISD have developed a fruitful collaboration in the last decade, delivering tangible, sustainable development progress across the region.

A new agreement signed this month will ensure the partnership continues for a second decade and extend the support to COMESA member states, enabling them to address their most urgent issues across foreign investment, agriculture, food systems, trade, tax, and standards.

“This represents a critical step forward in our long-running partnership and underlines our shared commitment to fostering sustainable development in Eastern and Southern Africa,” says Nathalie Bernasconi-Osterwalder, IISD’s Vice President for Global Strategies and Managing Director for Europe.

“This partnership is poised to contribute significantly to the efficient and effective development and implementation of our programmes,” says COMESA Secretary General Chileshe Mpundu Kapwepwe, “which will, in turn, enhance regional trade and investment in agri-food systems. By working together, we can achieve our shared vision of a more sustainable future for the region.”

COMESA and IISD will join forces to deliver new capacity-building workshops, research, analysis, and technical assistance to promote robust, long-term solutions to COMESA member states’ most pressing policy problems and the effective implementation of COMESA programs.

Contacts

COMESA: Banele Jele, Investment Promotion Expert, email: [email protected]; Daniel Banda, Communication Officer, Email: [email protected]
 
IISD: Suzy H. Nikièma, Director of Investment, email: [email protected]; Isaak Bowers, Communications Officer for Investment, email: [email protected]

About COMESA

COMESA is a regional economic community established in 1994. It brings together 21 African Member States with a population of over 640 million people into a cooperative framework for sustainable economic growth and prosperity through regional integration. Website: www.comesa.int

July 24, 2024 — Oil and gas exploration is booming despite an agreement at last year’s COP 28 climate summit to transition away from fossil fuels.

Experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development analyzed global data collated by the research company Rystad. They found:

• Resources discovered in 2024 threaten to unleash 12 billion tonnes of CO2 if fully exploited—more than the past 4 years’ discoveries combined. 
• Rich countries (the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom) have issued two thirds of the global number of oil and gas licences since 2020.
• China, Mexico, and Russia are set to license the biggest volumes of oil and gas in the second half of 2024.
• Companies spent an estimated USD 26.2 billion looking for more oil and gas in newly awarded and discovered fields over the past 12 months. Equinor, Shell, and BP were the biggest investors.
• If all licensed fields are fully exploited, the world will extract more than twice as much oil and gas in 2040 as is compatible with a 1.5°C global warming limit. The “production gap” is widening at its highest rate since 2015. 
• There is no room for new oil and gas fields under a 1.5°C global warming limit, peer-reviewed research shows.

Olivier Bois von Kursk, policy advisor at IISD, says, “Ending oil and gas licensing is a logical next step in the transition to clean energy. Governments need to put the COP 28 agreement into practice—particularly those with the wealth to drive investment into more sustainable sectors."

IISD is launching the Carbon Minefields newsletter to track the climate impact of global oil and gas licensing and capex data on a monthly basis.

Eduardo Posada, policy analyst at IISD, says: “AI allows us to analyze these huge datasets faster than before. We hope the Carbon Minefields newsletter will be a valuable tool to hold governments and companies to account for delivering on climate agreements.”

Notes for Editors

1. July Edition | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor
2. No New Fossil Fuel Projects: The logical first step in a transition to clean energy
3. How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans
4. COP 28 Agreement Signals “Beginning of the End” of the Fossil Fuel Era (UN Climate Change press release)

Media Contact

Megan Darby, Senior Communications Officer, IISD: [email protected]