Investors are developing an activist streak on matters of emissions reduction. The trend has been growing in Europe for years and has led to some pitched battles in the United States.
Key takeaways from leading global efforts
Winnipeg, MB (May 27, 2021) – As more countries take action to limit global warming to 1.5°C by reaching net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, Canada must accelerate efforts or risk getting left behind, finds a new report from the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
Net-zero is the new normal, claim the authors of 10 Ways to Win the Global Race to Net-Zero, released today. This is demonstrated by a growing body of research, modelling, and on-the-ground efforts that are starting to paint a picture of how to achieve this goal—both in theory and in practice.
Keys to success: First, energy efficiency and electrification, which have the capacity to deliver the greatest contribution; second, a reduction in GHG emissions such as methane in addition to carbon dioxide; and third, the decarbonization of heavy industry, where hydrogen could be a valuable player.
Sweden, for example, is punching above its weight in the race to produce green steel, and Germany has the pole position in deploying a comprehensive strategy to ramp up production and use of hydrogen. The European Battery Alliance has launched a continental battery industry and is making rapid strides toward battery self-sufficiency for its rapidly growing electric vehicle industry.
In all three cases, governments articulated the objective, collaborated with business leaders to develop a roadmap, and provided significant resources to kickstart the journey. Getting to net-zero also requires changes in governance, as exemplified by President Biden’s “all-of-government” approach.
In New Zealand, the government is advancing reconciliation by elevating Māori voices as equal partners in climate action. And, recognizing that no region or person can be left behind in the energy transition, the European Union (EU) is forging new ground with its Just Transition Mechanism.
While these examples of leading and innovative approaches can’t simply be copied and pasted into a Canadian context, they can be used to inform a made-in-Canada road map.
The report’s authors put forth five solutions and five strategies to accelerate action toward net-zero.
Above all, this ambitious goal will demand wide-reaching, systemic transformation and cooperation across all sectors. If Canada is to achieve net-zero emissions and prosper in the process, the pace of its efforts will need to accelerate—and there’s no time to lose.
Media inquiries:
Vanessa Farquharson
Director, Communications
[email protected]
(613) 238-2296 ext. 114
Global insights to inform Canadian climate competitiveness
It's time for Canada to get out of the starting blocks in the race to net-zero. This report points to early wins in Sweden, Germany, New Zealand and other leading nations, offering five solutions and five strategies for Canada to implement.
We all heard @IEA @fbirol say it: "No new investments in oil, gas and coal, from now—from this year." The global race to #NetZero is on and there's no turning back. Who's in the lead, and how can #Canada catch up?
The recent @IEA report & numerous other studies have found that hitting #NetZero by 2050 is feasible. But it demands systemic transformation & cooperation across sectors, plus the will to act boldly. Is #Canada ready?
With each passing day, more countries—and, increasingly, more companies—pledge to limit global warming to 1.5°C by reaching net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. Collectively, countries with net-zero targets represent 61% of global GHG emissions, 68% of global GDP, and 52% of the global population. Companies with net-zero commitments together represent sales of nearly USD 14 trillion.
Net-zero is the new normal.
And a growing body of research, modelling, and analysis is beginning to paint a picture of how countries can get to this point by mid-century. Across all the studies, there are several findings that stand out:
OTTAWA - The expected uptake of electric vehicles and stricter measures world-wide to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are the top reasons why a climate-focused research group is calling on governments not to invest any more money in Alberta’s oil sector.
A new report predicts a steady long-term decline in Alberta’s oil sector beginning by the end of the decade. Geopolitical dynamics, particularly in relation to the behaviour of OPEC+ members after peak oil, will make this a volatile decline.
Winnipeg, MB (May 26, 2021) – A combination of market forces, international climate policies, and geopolitics will push Alberta’s oil sector beyond a tipping point and drive its long-term decline by the end of this decade. That’s the key finding of a new report and modelling by the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
The report identifies eight key factors that will affect the future of Alberta’s oil sector. It finds that five of the factors will apply downward pressure on the sector over the long term. The biggest factor is the global transition away from internal combustion vehicles and toward electric and alternative-fuel vehicles, which will sap the 44% of demand for crude oil currently coming from transportation.
According to the report, the only factor that will apply upward pressure on Alberta’s oil sector over the long term is increased global demand for plastics. Domestic climate change policies, such as a carbon price, were excluded from the assessment in order to focus on factors outside of Canada’s immediate control.
The report predicts a steady long-term decline in Alberta’s oil sector beginning by the end of the decade. Geopolitical dynamics, particularly in relation to the behaviour of OPEC+ members after peak oil, will make this a volatile decline.
New modelling in the report shows how volatility poses a much greater threat than low prices to the Alberta economy. A conservative outlook on price volatility finds that its damage to Alberta’s economy could be more than five times worse than the effect of just low prices.
The report concludes that, unless there are innovations in the uses of oil for non-combustion, also known as "bitumen beyond combustion," the oil sector will contribute less and less to Alberta’s prosperity. The report models a potential drop in employment from the oil sector of 24,300 full-time jobs per year on average toward 2050, as well as a potential 43% drop in royalties from the sector to the Alberta government.
"After a temporary rebound this decade, the long-term outlook for Alberta’s oil sector is bleak," said report author and economist, Aaron Cosbey. "Governments need to focus investments not on propping up a shrinking sector but on diversifying the economy and advancing new growth opportunities."
View the full report here.
Media inquiries:
Vanessa Farquharson
Director, Communications
[email protected]
(613) 238-2296 ext. 114
This report assesses the market outlook for Alberta’s oil sector, using new modelling and a comprehensive analysis of eight key factors affecting the sector’s future.
What does the future look like for #Alberta’s oil sector? Is a thriving oil sector even possible, given market realities? #abpoli
Alberta’s oil sector has been an economic workhorse for decades; as of 2019, it was contributing CAD 68 billion to the province's economy. But its long-term outlook is bleak. #abpoli
By 2030, market forces & geopolitics will drive a long-term decline in the AB oil sector—potentially causing 20,000 job losses annually. Public support to the sector is a poor investment. #abpoli
The long-term market outlook for Alberta's oil sector is bleak. By the end of this decade, a combination of market forces, international climate policies and geopolitics will push the sector beyond a tipping point and drive its long-term decline.
This is new. The oil sector has never experienced an outlook like this, in which demand and prices fall without prospect of recovery—and its decline, beginning by the end of this decade, will put Alberta’s economy to the test.
Modelling for low oil prices shows material drops in provincial GDP, royalties, and employment from the oil sector. However, price volatility poses a much greater threat than low prices to the Alberta economy. When we apply the kind of price volatility that we’ve seen over the last 37 years to the next 30 years, the damage to Alberta’s economy can be more than five times worse in our modelling.
This is a dynamic that standard economic projections ignore.
A prosperous Alberta will need to depend less and less on the oil sector, at least in so far as production of oil for combustion. Governments should target support and investments at diversification, new growth opportunities, and a just transition for workers and communities.
Read the report, then join our event: Oil and The Future of Alberta's Economy.
Despite Canada's high average household income, numerous groups living in Canada are marginalized and at risk of being left behind in the push to reach the Sustainable Development Goals. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, approximately 14% of people in Canada were designated as poor due to their low income. Indigenous Peoples, people with disabilities, lone parents, recent immigrants, and several other groups disproportionately experience deprivation because of racism, geographic isolation, poor governance, and inherited socioeconomic burdens. The COVID-19 crisis has aggravated many of these factors and pushed several groups further behind.
Leaving no one behind in Canada behind requires a clear understanding of who is being left behind, the reasons why they are being left behind, and what their needs are to catch up. Good data on marginalized groups and the factors of marginalization are essential to understand the needs of marginalized people and how these needs have changed through the pandemic.
Previous IISD research on monitoring the well-being of marginalized people living in Canada revealed several data-related challenges, including:
This follow-up project aims to support more inclusive monitoring of the well-being of marginalized people in Canada by exploring the potential for a multi-tiered measurement approach where local communities and marginalized groups participate in gathering, governing, and using data to measure the state of their well-being in the SDG context. To do so, IISD will:
The project will present its results in a series of articles, offering research findings but primarily centring the voices of members of marginalized groups as they share their insights into:
All articles will be available on this project page. Selected articles will be republished as op-eds or on other outlets, including the SDG knowledge Hub, Alliance 2030, or the International Leave No One Behind Partnership. A handbook will synthesize the main findings of the projects and derive recommendations for action.
By committing to the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Canada also pledged to to "leave no one behind" in its development efforts. This will only be possible if we improve how we monitor the well-being of the country's most marginalized groups.
Achieving the principle of leaving no one behind implies that implementation should start with those furthest behind and adequate monitoring must be in place to ensure the well-being of marginalized groups improves—and no new groups are harmed.
To create opportunities for synergies between the "leave no one behind" principle and the "realize human rights for all" principle in implementation and improved monitoring, there is a need to properly leverage data and legal mechanisms.
To improve data collection on those left behind, organizations are working to improve the availability of geospatial data and fill data gaps to determine not only who is being left behind, but where they are.
Racialized data on risk exposure and health impacts can help understand inequities in COVID-19 impact and support preventive policy decisions, but collection to date is haphazard. The federal government should take a cue from provincial and non-governmental initiatives and be more deliberate about collecting and safely using race-disaggregated data.
Investments in a rich data ecosystem that supports citizen-generated data alongside official data sources empowers marginalized groups, provides a holistic understanding of marginalization, and supports inclusive decision-making to ensure that no one is left behind in SDG implementation.
Official statistics and measures of poverty do not fully capture the causes of marginalization and how they intersect and interact. The 2030 Agenda is catalyzing a shift in how the world thinks about data and the use of "non-official data sources" to better reflect the needs of the most marginalized.
If Canada is to ensure all Canadians have access to safe drinking water, we must do more than invest in drinking water facilities. We need to understand the deeper threats to the sources of drinking water — threats that may be altered or exacerbated by a changing climate.
This event will focus on the role of oil in the future of Alberta's economy, with key experts weighing in on the challenges and growth opportunities for the province's future prosperity.
Alberta’s oil sector has been an economic workhorse for decades. As of 2019, it was contributing over CAD 68 billion to the province's economy. But, according to a new IISD report, its long-term market outlook is challenging. By the end of this decade a combination of market forces, global climate policies and geopolitics will drive a long-term decline in the sector as a producer of burnable hydrocarbons. Even in the interim, oil’s contribution to Alberta’s prosperity will be nothing like what it has been in the past.
So where do we go from here?
This event took place on June 3 (10:00-12:00 MDT). Key experts weighed in on critical questions, including:
What are the short and long-term prospects for oil as a driver of prosperity? What are the policy implications in terms of government support for the sector? What role is there for oil in the transition, diversification of the Alberta economy?
What are the key areas of potential for future prosperity? What obstacles are there to achieving that potential? How to address them? How to support workers in the transition?
If you thought Canada's domestic carbon tax was controversial, just wait for its new global equivalent now being negotiated behind closed doors, say Canadians who have been following its progress.
