Fossil Fuel Production, Renewable Energy, and Subsidy Reform in Nationally Determined Contributions 3.0
Ambition benchmarks for 1.5 °C alignment
Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to update their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every 5 years, with the next round due in 2025. The third generation of NDCs must address significant gaps in ambition to achieve the 1.5 °C target. This policy brief provides an analysis of the critical benchmarks and recommendations necessary for aligning NDCs with the 1.5 °C target.
-
No new coal, oil, or gas projects are compatible with 1.5 °C. Current NDCs often fail to address this, widening the "production gap." Read our new policy brief for recommendations on how to address fossil fuel production in NDCs!
-
Fossil fuel subsidies totalled USD 1.5 trillion in 2022. Most NDCs neglect this critical area. Our new policy brief provides guidance on how to address fossil fuel subsidies through NDCs. #StopFundingFossils
-
How can we implement the global stocktake outcome on tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements into third-generation NDCs? Read our new policy brief to find out!
The three key ambition benchmarks this policy brief focuses on are
- scaling renewable energy: Tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 are vital. Regions with low renewables bases, like sub-Saharan Africa, require accelerated growth supported by international finance.
- transitioning away from fossil fuels: No new coal, oil, or gas projects are compatible with the 1.5 °C target. Production must decline sharply but current NDCs often fail to address this, widening the "production gap."
- reforming fossil fuel subsidies: Subsidies totalled USD 1.5 trillion in 2022. Their removal could cut global emissions by up to 10% by 2030, yet most NDCs neglect this critical area.
You might also be interested in
Bonn Climate Talks: What to watch for the fossil fuel transition
As governments return to Bonn for the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies meetings (SB64), the transition away from fossil fuels will be a key test of whether growing political momentum can translate into practical progress.
Bonn Climate Talks 2026: What to expect after Santa Marta
With UN climate talks starting in Bonn soon, the shift to implementation is being felt, especially in the transition away from fossil fuels.
May 2026 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor
For the second month in a row, the United States has dominated new licensing activity, awarding 74 new exploration licences in April alone. If fully combusted this could emit 35.5 MtCO2.
April 2026 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor
In March 2026, 91 oil and gas exploration licences were awarded across three countries, giving companies access to resources that would emit an estimated 93.1 MtCO2 if burned.