July 2026 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

Last month, global awarded oil and gas exploration acreage stood at around 354,000 square kilometres, a territory that’s roughly the size of Germany. Libya, Turkmenistan, and the United States awarded almost all the new blocks in offshore areas.

Licensing in Libya was particularly notable, not only because of its sizable gas reserves potential, but because this concluded its first licensing round since 2007. This marks a new phase for Libya's oil and gas sector, which has mostly been stagnant since the civil war. Libyan reserves are estimated to be the largest on the continent. In awards last month, Eni and QatarEnergy acquired the largest blocks on the Libyan Mediterranean coast.

The United States, meanwhile, awarded the most blocks overall, as it directs exploration activity in the Gulf. However, the conclusion of the U.S. federal government’s second “Big Beautiful Gulf” lease sale in June marked a significant decrease in bids compared to the first lease sale at the end of last year. Overall spending went down by 85%, from 181 blocks receiving bids in the last round to 25 this year.

Exploration activities are expected to increase significantly in the second half of this year, with 26 licensing rounds currently open for bidding, including 237 blocks across 18 countries. Just as Brazil has over the last year, countries including Suriname and Egypt have implemented an “open door” policy, meaning companies can bid on any block at any time, outside the standard bidding round process. This signals an increased willingness to stimulate upstream activities, but it remains to be seen whether oil and gas companies will answer the call or hold off due to increasing concerns over stranded asset risks.

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded 

In June 2026, 22 new oil and gas exploration received licences across six countries, with resources that could release 124.3 MtCO2 if fully combusted. Libya topped the list, with licences worth about 50 million barrels of oil and 832 billion cubic feet of gas, equivalent to 82.2 MtCO2.

Oil and Gas Companies' Exploration Activities 

Chevron, TPAO, and Eni were the lead investors in oil and gas exploration licences awarded in June 2026, collectively committing over USD 1 billion in capital expenditure (CapEx), half of the global total. The month’s most emissions-intensive licences were acquired by Eni, QatarEnergy, and Petronas, mainly in Libya, Turkmenistan, and Norway.

Rolling Annual Update

Licences Awarded 

Over the past 12 months, governments have awarded 771 new oil and gas exploration licences that could release up to 1,571 Mt of end-use greenhouse gas emissions. The peak came in March 2026, at 329.9 MtCO2. The bulk of these high-emission licences were granted by economies that have limited capacity to transition away from fossil fuels and GDPs that are relatively independent of oil and gas activity. Indonesia leads this pack, issuing the largest volume of carbon-heavy permits.  Rather than expanding licences, targeted international support could help tip the balance against further oil and gas expansion in economies like Indonesia’s. 

 Note: The end-use emissions from newly awarded licences are presented based on four country groups from the Civil Society Equity Review (2023) categorization. Countries are grouped on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production.  These indicators are measured based on countries' ability to deal with the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction.

Exploration CapEx 

In the past 12 months, companies committed USD 29.5 billion in capital investments to newly awarded oil and gas exploration projects, averaging USD 2.5 billion per month. Chevron, BP, and Murphy Oil accounted for USD 6.4 billion of the 12-year sum. Projects awarded in March 2026 saw the largest inflows.

Outlook

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds 

While no new oil and gas fields are needed to meet global demand, governments continue to auction new licences, with 130 blocks currently open for bidding or under evaluation. If awarded, these licences could unlock reserves whose combustion would emit up to 26,443 MtCO2. Looking ahead, 67 additional blocks are slated for licensing rounds over the next 6 months, with fuel reserves carrying an estimated 1,502.7 MtCO2 of potential end-use emissions. Venezuela stands out with the largest share of planned blocks—roughly 440 MtCO2 if fully developed—underscoring the contradiction between the climate need to halt new fossil fuel projects and continued licensing activity.

About the Carbon Minefields newsletter

This newsletter provides monthly updates on global oil and gas expansion, reporting on every new oil and gas field and exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these fields and licences, translating them into total end-use emissions—that is, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere if the licensed oil and gas is extracted and burned. Finally, the monitoring of companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion activities. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas.

During the Global Stocktake at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28), countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. This is urgent to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Moreover, research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target.

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development; we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2026) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2026) extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2026-07-01 and published with Rystad’s permission. Embodied emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the IPCC emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-4o mini. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on July 7, 2026. International Institute for Sustainable Development experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation.

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected].