June 2025 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

In May 2025, countries awarded oil and gas exploration licences with an estimated 143.4 million tonnes of embodied carbon dioxide emissions, corresponding to 109,000 km2 of new acreage—roughly the size of Cuba. They were awarded primarily in onshore blocks in Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates, and offshore areas in Myanmar and Indonesia. New high-profile rounds in Brazil, the United States Gulf Coast, Norway, and India indicate licensing will remain high over the coming month as governments and companies push ahead with new exploration. Indonesia announced it would offer three new onshore-offshore blocks with large expected reserves. China and Russia remain the two countries with by far the largest estimated volumes of oil and gas in planned licensing rounds over the next 6 months, with more than 1.1 GtCO2 in embodied emissions. 

Crude oil prices were highly volatile in the past month, surging to a 5-month high after Israel and the United States hit Iran’s key nuclear sites and oil infrastructure. About a third of seaborne traded oil circulates daily through this region, which raises fears that an escalation of the conflict may disrupt global supply. While exploration plans in the short term should remain stable, a prolonged period of high oil prices may encourage some high-cost producers to explore new resources that could break even in such markets. For consumers, on the other hand, it only reinforces the case for switching to clean energy and reducing reliance on volatile fossil fuel markets.

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded

Last month, a total of 29 oil and gas exploration licences were awarded across four countries. Among these, Indonesia stood out, with licences that embodied the most carbon emissions: 113.1 million tonnes of CO2, stemming from an estimated volume of 1,893.2 billion cubic feet of gas. In total, the combined emissions from all 29 licences awarded last month amounted to 143.4 million metric tonnes of CO2.

Oil and Gas Companies' Exploration Activities

Last month, the global exploration capital expenditure (CapEx) into awarded licences reached 1,919.5 million USD, highlighting a substantial investment in fossil fuel exploration despite growing concerns about climate change and the risk of stranded assets. The companies that invested the most were Mari Petroleum, Bumi Armada, and OGDCL from Pakistan, collectively spending USD 567.4 million. Among those, Bumi Armada, Pertamina, and Petronas acquired exploration licences with the highest embodied emissions, mostly from Indonesia.

Rolling Annual Update

Licences Awarded

In the last 12 months, a total of 799 oil and gas exploration licences were awarded, with the burning of these reserves estimated to result in 2,342.6 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. The month with the highest volume of embodied emissions from awarded licences was August 2024, accounting for 616.0 million tonnes of CO2. The countries awarding licences with the highest estimated emissions are those with limited capacity to transition away from oil and gas production and low reliance on these fuels. Among these nations, India awarded licences with the largest volume of embodied emissions. It is closely followed by the United States, which has high capacity to transition away from fossil fuels and low economic dependence on them.

Note: The embodied carbon emissions from newly awarded licences are presented based on four country groups based on the Civil Society Equity Review (2023) categorization. Countries are grouped based on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production.  These indicators are measured based on countries' ability to deal with the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction.

Exploration CapEx

In the last 12 months, a total of USD 23.6 billion has been invested in CapEx in newly licensed oil and gas exploration projects, with projects awarded in January 2025 receiving the highest investments. On average, monthly investments amount to USD 2.0 billion. Chevron, Shell, and Petrobras are the top investors, collectively contributing USD 5.2 billion toward exploration projects awarded in the last 12 months.

Outlook

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds

As of last month, there were 37 licences open for bidding or under evaluation, while a total of 425 blocks are scheduled for licensing rounds in the next 6 months. These planned blocks hold an estimated 9,275.7 MtCO2 of embodied emissions globally if the fuel reserves are burned. Notably, China has planned blocks with the highest volume of potential emissions, totalling around 1,789.8 MtCO2 if combusted.

About the Carbon Minefields Newsletter

This newsletter provides monthly updates on oil and gas expansion globally, reporting on every new oil and gas exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these licences, translating them into total embodied emissions—that is, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere if the licensed oil and gas is extracted and burned. Finally, the monitoring of companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion activities. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas.

Halting new fossil fuel projects is a key step in limiting global warming to 1.5°C and transitioning away from fossil fuels, as agreed by 198 countries at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28). Research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target.

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD); we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2025) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2025)  extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2025-06-18 and published with Rystad’s permission. Embodied emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-4o mini. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on June 19, 2025. International Institute for Sustainable Development experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation.

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected].