June 2026 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

Pakistan formally reopened offshore oil and gas exploration in May, for the first time in nearly 2 decades. Under the Offshore Bid Round 2025, the country awarded 21 exploration licences for blocks across the Indus and Makran basins, covering roughly 54,600 km2—an area roughly the size of Croatia. Initial investment is estimated at USD 82 million over the first 3 years.

Pakistan is highly dependent on oil and gas imports, leaving the country particularly exposed to energy shocks. When it comes to crude oil production, Pakistan produces roughly 70,000 barrels per day against consumption of around 500,000, leaving over 85% of oil demand dependent on imports, the bulk of which transits the Strait of Hormuz.

Expanding domestic solar offers a more resilient path to energy security, shielding the country from the price shocks and supply disruptions associated with fossil fuel imports. Pakistan has already built momentum in this direction: solar capacity is estimated at 51 GW in 2026, with electricity from rooftop solar set to exceed grid demand. This is a structural shift that can reduce fossil fuel demand and the country’s exposure to volatile commodity markets. Expanding oil and gas production now risks locking in fossil fuel dependence while crowding out the renewable investments that could better support energy security.

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded

 In May 2026, five countries awarded 39 new oil and gas exploration licences, unlocking resources that would emit 251 MtCO2 if combusted. Pakistan accounted for the largest share (75%), with licences estimated to contain 225.7 million barrels of oil (bbl) and 1,354 billion cubic feet (cf) of gas, equivalent to approximately 188 Mt of end-use CO2 emissions. 

Oil and Gas Companies’ Exploration Activities 

Global exploration capital expenditure (CapEx) hit USD 3,980.4 million in May 2026, with three companies—Mari Energies, Dongfang, and Cinda International Holdings Ltd.—alone investing USD 2,582.5 million in exploration projects. Mari Energies, Cinda International Holdings Ltd., and Prime Energy Trading secured exploration licences with the highest estimated end-use emissions, mostly in Pakistan and Indonesia. 

Rolling Annual Update

Licences Awarded 

In the last 12 months, governments granted 797 oil and gas exploration licences. If these resources are fully extracted and burned, this could release an estimated 2,440.8 MtCO2. Notably, the highest-impact licences were awarded by countries with relatively low fossilfuel dependence and limited transition capacity. Brazil, for example, was the main driver of the 12-month licensing peak in June 2025, offering 34 blocks in a major offshore licensing round, covering more than 230,000 km2, with more than half of that in the biodiverse Foz do Amazonas basin. These are countries where international climate finance and policy support could most plausibly accelerate an energy transition. 

 Note: The end-use carbon emissions from newly awarded licences are presented based on four country groups, based on the Civil Society Equity Review (2023) categorization. Countries are grouped based on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production. These indicators are measured based on countries’ ability to deal with the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction. 

Exploration CapEx

Over the past 12 months, oil and gas firms have funnelled USD 35.2 billion into new exploration awards, averaging USD 2.9 billion monthly, with June 2025 marking the peak. Chevron, Mari Energies, and BP alone account for USD 7 billion of the last 12 months of spending, despite the climate risks of continued oil and gas expansion. 

Outlook

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds

Currently, there are 121 oil and gas licences open for bidding or under evaluation. If awarded and fully exploited, this could release roughly 26,329 MtCO₂. In addition, 17 new blocks are slated for licensing rounds over the next 6 months, with fuel resources that could potentially emit 2,195.6 MtCO₂ if burned. Among these planned sites, China stands out with the highest possible climate impact at about 845.0 MtCO₂.  

About the Carbon Minefields newsletter

This newsletter provides monthly updates on global oil and gas expansion, reporting on every new oil and gas field and exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these fields and licences, translating them into total end-use emissions—that is, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere if the licensed oil and gas is extracted and burned. Finally, the monitoring of companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion activities. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas. 

During the global stocktake at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28), countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. This is urgent to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Moreover, research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target. 

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD); we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2026) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2026) extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2026-06-03 and published with Rystad’s permission. Embodied emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the IPCC emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-4o mini. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on June 9, 2026. IISD experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation. 

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected].