August 2026 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

Final Edition: From tracking expansion to supporting implementation 

When IISD launched Carbon Minefields, we aimed to make the continued expansion of oil and gas production more visible and measurable. While it has been an illuminating journey, several factors are now leading IISD to move towards other endeavours. This monthly newsletter has helped us and, we hope, our subscribers make better sense of the global upstream expansion landscape, including which governments are still hoping oil and gas development can generate long-term returns—and which companies are betting on reaping them.

The production gap has far from disappeared, but the International Energy Agency now projects that peak oil demand is expected in the early 2030s, followed by gas a few years later. The international climate policy landscape has also changed substantially. The need to transition away from fossil fuels is now formally included in UNFCCC proceedings, and last year, the Brazilian COP 30 Presidency initiated a process to design roadmaps for that transition, with an explicit focus on implementation.

This gave rise to the Santa Marta process which focuses on how countries can translate the commitment to transition away from fossil fuels into practical action. IISD is the lead technical support for the process on macroeconomic dependencies and financial incentives.

Many more organizations are now tracking the supply of fossil fuels. The Global Energy Monitor provides extensive open-access data through tools like its Global Oil and Gas Extraction Tracker. Projects like the Fossil Fuel Atlas or Carbon Bombs help visualize this expansion, while Carbon Tracker continues to analyze the financial and transition risks associated with investment in fossil fuel production.

These initiatives support diplomatic efforts, such as the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance and the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative, which are building international cooperation by highlighting the benefits of managing the phase-out of fossil fuels.

The legal context also evolved, with last year’s International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion providing authoritative guidance on the potential legal consequences of failing to meet climate obligations. This has implications for government decisions on fossil fuel production, support, and investment.

Transparency and scrutiny of fossil fuel expansion remain essential—we are now looking ahead to the next stage of the challenge: implementation and supporting governments implementing a transition away from fossil fuels in practice.

We are closing this chapter at a point when the issues Carbon Minefields helped illuminate have moved firmly into the mainstream of international climate and energy policy. In this final edition, we would like to thank our readers, partners, and colleagues who have used, shared, and contributed to the newsletter over the years.

We hope to stay connected and invite you to subscribe to our Energy Insights newsletter for updates on energy transition developments. You can also continue following our work on Advancing the Transition Away From Fossil Fuels.

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded 

Only two new oil and gas exploration licences were awarded in July 2026, with New Zealand and China handing out one each. If fully developed, these licences could unlock an estimated 2.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtC0₂) of potential end-use emissions. 

Oil and Gas Companies' Exploration Activities

Last month, Shaanxi Bo Instant New Energy, EnZed Energy, and ExxonMobil disbursed USD 68.3 million in new oil and gas exploration capital expenditure (CapEx). EnZed and Shaanxi Bo secured the licences with the highest estimated end-use emissions—sourced chiefly in New Zealand and China. 

Rolling Annual Update 

Licences Awarded

A total of 768 oil and gas exploration licences have been awarded over the past 12 months, with discovered resources that could emit 1,510 MtCO₂, putting global climate goals at risk. The peak monthly allocation occurred in March 2026, totalling 315.6 MtCO₂ of end-use emissions.

Note: The end-use emissions from newly awarded licences are presented based on four country groups from the Civil Society Equity Review (2023) categorization. Countries are grouped on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production. These indicators are measured based on countries’ ability to manage the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction.

Exploration CapEx  

Over the past year, industry has channelled USD 27.8 billion into exploration projects awarded—an average of USD 2.3 billion per month—with March 2026 seeing the biggest surge. Chevron, BP, and Murphy Oil accounted for USD 6 billion in the last 12-month spending period.

Outlook

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds 

Currently, 154 exploration licences are open for bidding or under evaluation. If awarded, they could unlock resources with 27,133 Mt of potential end-use emissions. A further 163 blocks are slated for licensing over the next 6 months, whose fuel resources could emit an estimated 5,905 MtCO₂ upon combustion. China leads this expansion, with its planned blocks alone accounting for 2,294.5 Mt of potential end-use emissions.

The research is clear: there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Any new oil and gas development risks worsening climate change impacts and bets against global climate commitments.

About the Carbon Minefields newsletter 

This newsletter provides monthly updates on global oil and gas expansion, reporting on every new oil and gas field and exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these fields and licences, translating them into total end-use emissions—that is, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) released into the atmosphere if the licensed oil and gas is extracted and burned. Finally, the monitoring of companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion activities. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas.

During the Global Stocktake at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28), countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. This is urgent to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Moreover, research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target.

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD); we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2026) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2026) extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2026-08-06 and published with Rystad’s permission. End-use emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the IPCC emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-4o mini. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on August 12, 2026. International Institute for Sustainable Development experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation.

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected].