Carbon Minefields: Oil and gas exploration is surging to pre-Covid levels

July 24, 2024 — Oil and gas exploration is booming despite an agreement at last year’s COP 28 climate summit to transition away from fossil fuels.

Experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development analyzed global data collated by the research company Rystad. They found:

• Resources discovered in 2024 threaten to unleash 12 billion tonnes of CO2 if fully exploited—more than the past 4 years’ discoveries combined. 
• Rich countries (the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom) have issued two thirds of the global number of oil and gas licences since 2020.
• China, Mexico, and Russia are set to license the biggest volumes of oil and gas in the second half of 2024.
• Companies spent an estimated USD 26.2 billion looking for more oil and gas in newly awarded and discovered fields over the past 12 months. Equinor, Shell, and BP were the biggest investors.
• If all licensed fields are fully exploited, the world will extract more than twice as much oil and gas in 2040 as is compatible with a 1.5°C global warming limit. The “production gap” is widening at its highest rate since 2015. 
• There is no room for new oil and gas fields under a 1.5°C global warming limit, peer-reviewed research shows.

Olivier Bois von Kursk, policy advisor at IISD, says, “Ending oil and gas licensing is a logical next step in the transition to clean energy. Governments need to put the COP 28 agreement into practice—particularly those with the wealth to drive investment into more sustainable sectors."

IISD is launching the Carbon Minefields newsletter to track the climate impact of global oil and gas licensing and capex data on a monthly basis.

Eduardo Posada, policy analyst at IISD, says: “AI allows us to analyze these huge datasets faster than before. We hope the Carbon Minefields newsletter will be a valuable tool to hold governments and companies to account for delivering on climate agreements.”

Notes for Editors

1. July Edition | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor
2. No New Fossil Fuel Projects: The logical first step in a transition to clean energy
3. How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans
4. COP 28 Agreement Signals “Beginning of the End” of the Fossil Fuel Era (UN Climate Change press release)

Media Contact

Megan Darby, Senior Communications Officer, IISD: [email protected]