Amid Oil and Gas Volatility, Experts Outline What Credible Fossil Fuel Transition Roadmaps Should Include

March 10, 2026 — With oil and gas markets facing renewed volatility amid the Middle East crisis, governments preparing for April’s Colombia–Netherlands-led conference in Santa Marta have an opportunity to advance credible national roadmaps — grounded in science, justice and international coordination —for the transition away from fossil fuels, according to a new report.

A new policy brief by the International Institute for Sustainable Development, E3G, ECCO, Observatório do Clima, and the Sustainable Economics and Finance Association sets out what those roadmaps should include, arguing that effective transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF) plans must meet five core tests.

They must align with climate science and established pathways; address both fossil fuel production and consumption rather than demand alone; embed procedural and distributive justice through inclusive planning and worker protections; ensure national ownership across ministries and economic portfolios; and be backed by coordinated international finance, shared standards and robust monitoring systems.

At least 46 countries already have plans to decarbonize their power sectors, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Norway. Several countries—including the UK and Colombia—are also developing plans to reduce fossil fuel production, while subnational leaders such as California and Quebec are advancing their own transition strategies. 

In practice, that means linking fossil fuel decline to electrification and renewable build-out, reforming fossil fuel subsidies, planning for decommissioning and clean-up, and preparing fiscal and economic diversification strategies, particularly for producer economies.

Without these elements, experts warn, the transition risks becoming fragmented, with countries investing in supply that may not match future demand, increasing fiscal exposure and the risk of stranded assets while missing opportunities to strengthen competitiveness and energy security.

More than 80 countries backed a call at the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 30) for a global roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels. With the Brazilian COP 30 Presidency advancing that initiative, and the Santa Marta conference set to deepen dialogue, 2026 presents what experts describe as a key window to connect national plans with international coordination.

“Debates at COP 30 showed that many countries are ready to move beyond promises and have practical conversations about how to shift away from fossil fuels in a way that protects economies, supports workers, and enables development,” said Alexandra Scott, senior climate diplomacy expert at ECCO. “Geopolitical tensions create real challenges, but cooperation is still possible. Countries such as Colombia, the Netherlands, and Brazil 
have stepped up to create space for dialogue—and the priority now is to turn that dialogue into coordinated action and concrete support so countries willing to transition are not left to face the risks alone.”

Lessons from Practice

The brief draws on case studies spanning Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) in South Africa, Indonesia, Viet Nam, and Senegal; national coal phase-out processes in Germany, Chile, Canada, and Denmark; and emerging roadmap efforts in Colombia, Türkiye, and Brazil.

These examples show that structured governance and predictable finance are decisive. Germany’s coal commission translated stakeholder negotiation into binding legislation. Chile paired phased retirement schedules with review cycles that allowed ambition to increase over time. JETPs linked higher ambition to international finance but also exposed gaps when concessional funding and delivery mechanisms fell short.

“The transition away from fossil fuels is already happening,” said Angela Picciariello, senior researcher at IISD. “The question is whether governments manage it deliberately. Roadmaps that integrate production and demand, economic diversification, and justice create resilience. Without that coherence, volatility increases.”

For producer economies, clarity is central to managing structural change.

“Countries dependent on fossil fuel revenues need predictable pathways and international coordination to diversify successfully,” said Stela Herschmann, climate policy specialist at Observatório do Clima.

Coordination as Economic Strategy

Experts say national ambition alone cannot manage systemic transition risks. Producer–consumer dialogue, financial reform, and shared monitoring standards are needed to avoid disorderly outcomes and send credible investment signals.

“Fossil fuel reliance is not just an economic vulnerability but a driver of global instability, exposing producers and consumers alike to rising volatility, security and climate risks,” said Katrine Petersen, senior policy advisor at E3G. “Strong backing at COP 30 for a global roadmap reflects a growing recognition that the transition is already underway—and that managing it in an orderly, coordinated way is firmly in countries’ interests to build security, 
resilience, and long-term growth.”

“Coordinated finance frameworks and structured follow-up processes are not optional add-ons—they are the backbone of credible transition planning,” said Bengisu Özenç, director at SEFIA. “If governments want to avoid disorderly market shifts and escalating fiscal risks, they need to align national roadmaps with international financial reform. The transition will move forward either way: the question is whether it does so with stability.”

Media Contacts

Aia Brnic, Communications Manager, IISD: [email protected], +41787634546

Eleonora Rinaldi, Press Officer, ECCO: [email protected]

Nesta Smith, Senior Communications Officer, E3G: [email protected]

Claudio Angelo, Communications and International Policy coordinator, Observatório do Clima: [email protected], +5561 998254783

About E3G

E3G is an independent climate change think tank with a global outlook. Our goal is to translate climate politics, economics and policies into action. We work on the frontier of the climate landscape tackling the barriers and advancing the solutions to a safe climate. More about our mission of a safe climate for all.

About ECCO

ECCO think tank is a non-profit organization, founded in early 2021 and registered as a Foundation. It is independent of private interests and funded exclusively through philanthropic or public resources. Established to support climate action in Italy, across Europe and globally, ECCO works in line with the timelines and targets set by science and the Paris Agreement. It seeks to build political will and strengthen institutional and technical capacity for climate action through research and the promotion of ideas. ECCO operates in an innovative and collaborative way on issues including finance, energy, industry, governance and geopolitics, developing evidence-based analyses, policy recommendations and strategies to enable effective and timely climate action.

About Observatório do Clima

Founded in 2002, the Observatório do Clima is the leading Brazilian civil society network working on the climate agenda. It currently brings together 133 members, including environmental organizations, research institutes, and social movements.

About SEFIA

SEFIA is a research oriented environmental NGO based in Ankara, Turkey. SEFiA focuses on energy transition, climate change and low-carbon development discussion from the lens of economics and financial analysis. SEFiA works in close ties with the environmental NGO sphere, by addressing their research needs through academic integrity. While its main domain of research is Turkey, SEFiA also seeks opportunities for building alliances with international peers to enhance the knowledge base.