Navigating Energy Transitions: Mapping the road to 1.5°C
Global oil and gas production must decrease by at least 65% by 2050 according to a consensus of selected 1.5°C-compatible energy scenarios. Developing any new oil and gas fields would prevent the world from limiting global warming to 1.5°C or create stranded assets.
Planned investments for new oil and gas to 2030 could fully finance the scale-up of wind and solar energy needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Europe's existing gas import capacities are sufficient to meet the continent's 1.5°C-compatible energy demand from 2024 onward. Europe can and must meet its energy needs without the Russian gas supply as of 2024 to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
The world must set itself on a pathway consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C to avoid the most disruptive and tragic consequences of climate change on people, ecosystems, and economies. This is extremely urgent and every fraction of a degree matters: at present rates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the world’s remaining carbon budget will be extinguished in approximately 8 years. The world can still achieve the 1.5°C goal, but the window to do so is narrowing quickly. Governments must urgently exceed the ambition of their current Paris Agreement pledges.
This report provides the first-ever comparison of large numbers of climate and energy pathways from various institutions to outline what is needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. It provides an assessment of the energy policies required to align with scenarios reviewed by the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, those produced by intergovernmental organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and by prominent scenarios designed by private sector consultancies.
The report finds a high degree of alignment between scenarios, and draws key conclusions on:
- The required phase-out pathways for oil and gas production between now and 2050, at the global level.
- The required levels of solar and wind energy deployment to substitute fossil energy production, at both global and regional levels.
- The investment gaps between current and planned spending and the investment needed to achieve Paris-aligned investment pathways, both globally and regionally.
Moreover, the report outlines the expected impacts of the war in Ukraine on renewable energy, addresses the role of the private sector in the energy transition, and recommends a number of actions that governments, investors, and financial institutions can take in order to align with 1.5°C scenarios.
You might also be interested in
Building a Net-Zero World: How U.S. Finance Can Strengthen Clean Energy Manufacturing Abroad
The world needs to rapidly expand and diversify clean energy supply chains to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 and mitigate dangerous climate impacts. While some sectors, such as solar photovoltaic manufacturing, are on track to hit their 2030 targets, there are major shortfalls in the production of many other clean energy products.
How the G20 Declaration Sets the Pace for Enhanced Climate Action at COP28 in December
The G20 summit in New Delhi has set the pace for enhanced climate action at COP28, as it refreshed its resolve to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius as per the Paris Agreement. The high-profile event ended with a soft commitment from the world's largest emitters to triple their renewable energy capacity by 2030.
New Report Finds Carbon Capture And Storage Far Too Expensive
A new report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development found carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies to be very expensive in Canada. According to the report, which focuses on carbon capture in the context of Canada's oil and gas industry, the climate solution’s persistently high costs are rooted in the "high design complexity and the need for customization."
G20 Summit Agreement Fails To Strengthen Coal Phase-Down Even As Data Show High Per Capita Coal Emissions
As world leaders gather in New Delhi for the Group of 20 (G20) Summit–with 19 member countries and the European Union–data show that a majority of the group still has very high per capita coal power emissions. At the summit, countries agreed to "pursue further efforts" to limit the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees celsius, agreeing to "encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally" but the G20 New Delhi Leaders Declaration included no new commitment on phasedown of coal power or on phasing down all fossil fuels.