September 2025 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

In August, 8,700 square  kilometers of acreage were awarded for oil and gas exploration globally. Even with this relatively small land area, the oil and gas volumes in licences issued so far in 2025 are the highest seen at this point in the year over the past 5 years. Nearly half of these licences went to national oil companies (NOCs), which together account for half of global oil and gas production and 40% of the industry’s investment.

Looking ahead, licensing activity in 2025 is expected to decline slightly compared to 2024, as several long-planned auctions face delays. Still, there is significant activity: around 25 licensing rounds are currently open for bidding worldwide, with additional processes under evaluation across Asia and Europe. Africa is expected to play an increasingly prominent role, as key producers such as Egypt and Cameroon invite international investors into new blocks. In North America, activity has been subdued in the first half of 2025, but multiple lease rounds scheduled later this year could shift the outlook.

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded

Despite clear scientific consensus that any new oil and gas development would push the world beyond the 1.5°C climate target, Trinidad and Tobago and Côte d’Ivoire each issued a new offshore exploration licence last month. Together, these licences could unlock an estimated 15.1 million barrels of oil (bbl) and 493.0 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas. If burned, these fuels would release around 35.8 million tonnes of CO2—enough to erase significant progress on emissions cuts and lock in a high-carbon trajectory.

Oil and Gas Companies' Exploration Activities

Oil and gas giants ExxonMobil and Eni invested a total of USD 718.3 million in oil and gas exploration licences awarded last month, underscoring the industry’s relentless expansion despite the scientific assessment that further growth is unnecessary and harmful. ExxonMobil secured the licences with the highest embodied emissions, located in Trinidad and Tobago.

Rolling Annual Update

Licences Awarded

Over the past 12 months, governments awarded 492 new oil and gas exploration licences, despite scientific consensus that further expansion would push the world beyond the 1.5°C climate limit. If fully combusted, these reserves would emit 1,777.8 MtCO2, with June 2025 alone accounting for 398.5 MtCO2. Notably, more than one third of all licences awarded over the past 12 months were acquired by NOCs. Though less visible than private oil and gas firms, NOCs produce around half of global oil and gas and are shaping the next wave of global expansion, making their decisions critical for the climate.

Note: The embodied carbon emissions from newly awarded licences are presented based on four country groups, based on the Civil Society Equity Review (2023) categorization. Countries are grouped based on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production. These indicators are measured based on countries’ ability to deal with the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction.

Exploration CapEx

Oil and gas exploration projects awarded over the past 12 months have attracted USD 26.5 billion in CapEx, averaging USD 2.2 billion per month. April 2025 saw the highest monthly investment. ONGC, Eni, and Shell lead the pack, committing a combined USD 7.2 billion, highlighting the industry’s relentless push into new fields despite growing climate risks.

Outlook

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds

Governments continue to offer 77 oil and gas licences open for bidding or under evaluation, which, if awarded, could release 6,139 MtCO2. Over the next six months, 454 additional blocks are entering planning for licensing rounds, with reserves whose combustion could emit an estimated 14,189 MtCO2 globally. This expansion directly conflicts with climate objectives. China stands out, with the largest planned block emissions—around 2,670.4 MtCO2—highlighting the urgent need to halt new hydrocarbon development and accelerate the transition to sustainable energy alternatives. Continuing to approve such licences undermines global climate targets and puts vulnerable communities worldwide at risk.

About the Carbon Minefields Newsletter

This newsletter provides monthly updates on oil and gas expansion globally, reporting on every new oil and gas exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these licences, translating them into total embodied emissions—that is, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere if the licenced oil and gas is extracted and burned. Finally, the monitoring of companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion activities. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas.

Halting new fossil fuel projects is a key step in limiting global warming to 1.5°C and transitioning away from fossil fuels, as agreed by 198 countries at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28). Research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target.

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD); we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2025) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2025) extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2025-09-04 and published with Rystad’s permission. Embodied emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-4o mini. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on September 11, 2025. International Institute for Sustainable Development experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation.

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected].