November 2025 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

Global licensing activity surged last month, with around 38,700 square kilometres of new acreage awarded, pushing the year-to-date total to almost 768,000 square kilometres, the highest level of any year since 2020. 

COP 30 host Brazil awarded a third of all new licences last month, in terms of estimated oil and gas reserves in exploration blocks. The Brazilian government operate a “Permanent Production Sharing Offer” that keeps oil and gas blocks open year-round, allowing companies to bid for exploration areas whenever they choose. Brazil awarded five blocks to its national oil company, Petrobras, which acquired the largest blocks in partnership with Norway’s Equinor. These new awards are consistent with Brazil’s plans to expand its oil and gas production by 20% by 2030. Elsewhere, governments in Africa and Asia accelerated leasing rounds and awards, from Algeria’s 30-year Illizi South deal to new allocations in Angola, Egypt, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

Meanwhile, at COP 30 in Belém, Brazil’s President Lula, called for a roadmap to overcome dependence on fossil fuels “despite our difficulties and contradictions.” More than 80 countries backed the idea of a process to smooth the transition away from fossil fuels for both producers and consumers.

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded 

October 2025 saw 15 exploration licences awarded across six countries, potentially unlocking an estimated 132.6 MtCO2 if these fuels are burned. Indonesia led with the largest share, granting licences that hold roughly 11 million barrels of oil (bbl) and 1,000 billion cubic feet (cf) of gas—equivalent to 70 MtCO2 in emissions. 

Oil and Gas Companies’ Exploration Activities

Companies have poured nearly a billion dollars into exploration licences approved in October 2025. The global exploration capital expenditure (CapEx) for projects awarded in the period totalled USD 975.2 million. Pertamina, Karoon Energy, and Petrobras led both in embodied emissions potential and in direct investment, spending a combined USD 460.5 million on licences concentrated primarily in Indonesia, Brazil, and Angola. This surge in exploration spending underscores the industry’s continued push for new fossil reserves, even as experts warn that reducing oil production is critical to meet climate goals.

Rolling Annual Update

Licences Awarded

Over the past 12 months, governments worldwide have greenlit 494 new oil and gas exploration licences, locking in reserves whose combustion would release a staggering 1,787 MtCO₂. June 2025 accounted for the single largest monthly haul, with permits representing 409.3 MtCO₂. Much of this expansion stems from countries with low capacity to phase out production and relatively little domestic fuel dependence. Among these, India awarded licences that could potentially release the greatest emissions.

Note: The embodied carbon emissions from newly awarded licences are presented based on four country groups, based on the Civil Society Equity Review (2023) categorization. Countries are grouped based on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production. These indicators are measured based on countries’ ability to deal with the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction. 

Exploration CapEx

Despite climate science urging a halt to new fossil fuel expansion, CapEx in oil and gas exploration projects awarded over the past 12 months reached USD 26.1 billion, averaging USD 2.2 billion per month. April 2025 saw the highest monthly allocation. Industry giants ONGC, Eni, and Shell together poured USD 6.5 billion into projects awarded in the last 12 months, underscoring the sector’s continued growth.

Outlook

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds

Despite a clear scientific consensus that we do not need to expand fossil fuel extraction, 87 new oil and gas exploration licences are currently open for bidding or under evaluation. If awarded, these licences could ultimately release up to 7,700.4 MtCO2, exacerbating the climate crisis. Simultaneously, plans are underway to add 289 exploration blocks in licensing rounds over the next 6 months, whose 8,846 MtCO2 in potential emissions would further lock in warming. China leads in planning-stage volume, with blocks totalling 1,755.4 MtCO2 if fully exploited. This rapid rollout of new carbon sources directly undermines commitments under the Paris Agreement.

About Carbon Minefields

This newsletter provides monthly updates on oil and gas expansion globally, reporting on every new oil and gas exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these licences, translating them into total embodied emissions—that is, the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere if the licensed oil and gas is extracted and burned. Finally, the monitoring of companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion activities. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas.

Halting new fossil fuel projects is a key step in limiting global warming to 1.5°C and transitioning away from fossil fuels, as agreed by 198 countries at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28). Research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target.

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD); we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2025) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2025) extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2025-11-06 and published with Rystad’s permission. Embodied emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-4o mini. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on November 10, 2025. International Institute for Sustainable Development experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation.

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected].