March 2026 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

The oil and gas markets have been shaken this month by the escalating U.S. and Israeli military campaign in Iran and Lebanon. The conflict has disrupted energy flows across the Middle East, with attacks targeting both oil infrastructure and commercial tankers in the Persian Gulf. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries around one fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade, has been severely curtailed, triggering sharp increases in oil and gas prices. Energy markets have responded quickly, with oil prices climbing above USD 100 per barrel and volatility reaching levels not seen since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.  

Beyond price volatility, the military impacts of the conflict have triggered one of the largest recent oil supply disruptions, with Middle Eastern producers cutting output by roughly 10 million barrels per day. These short-term shocks do not usually alter exploration strategies immediately, as such decisions are shaped by long investment cycles and planning horizons. Nevertheless, recent developments suggest exploration dynamics in the region could still shift. In February, several exploration blocks were awarded across the Middle East, including offshore gas acreage in Oman and Türkiye. Egypt also granted a new onshore exploration block to the Egyptian state company ENPEDCO, after having awarded offshore blocks to BP and Eni just a month earlier. 

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded

In February 2026, governments across three countries awarded six new oil and gas exploration licences, unlocking an estimated 43.3 MtCO₂ of potential end-use emissions. Oman led the pack, granting exploration licences worth about 25.2 million barrels of oil (bbl) and 306.3 billion cubic feet of gas, which together could release 30.3 MtCO₂.

Oil and Gas Companies' Exploration Activities

Despite a scientific consensus that no further oil and gas expansion is needed, companies invested USD 686 million in exploration capital expenditure (CapEx) into licences awarded in February. Petronas, TPAO, and OQ acquired licences that carry the highest end-use emissions, primarily in Oman and Türkiye; these licences alone accounted for USD 664.2 million of the total spend. This continued investment undermines global climate goals by locking in carbon-intensive infrastructure for decades.

Rolling Annual Update 

Licences Awarded

In the past 12 months, authorities issued 832 new oil and gas exploration licences, unlocking reserves that could emit about 2,391.1 MtCO₂ in end-use emissions. The peak month in terms of emissions was June 2025, in which licences granted carried the highest climate risk (949.5 MtCO₂). Notably, the projects with the largest associated end-use emissions were granted by nations with low fossil-fuel dependence and limited transition capacity; among these, Brazil topped the list, granting the most emissions-heavy licences.

Note: The end-use carbon emissions from newly awarded licences are presented based on four country groups, based on the Civil Society Equity Review (2023) categorization. Countries are grouped based on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production. These indicators are measured based on countries’ ability to deal with the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction.

Exploration CapEx

Oil and gas exploration projects awarded in the past 12 months were given USD 32.2 billion in CapEx, averaging USD 2.7 billion per month, with June 2025 attracting the highest investments. State and private majors ONGC, Chevron, and Petrobras alone spent USD 6.6 billion. This ongoing funding boom runs counter to scientific consensus that no further expansion is needed and risks severe climate harm.

Outlook

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds

Currently, 99 oil and gas exploration licences are open for bidding or under evaluation, which, if awarded and developed, could release up to 23,123.1 MtCO₂. Meanwhile, 82 new blocks are slated for licensing rounds over the next 6 months, with associated fuel reserves carrying an estimated 3,598.5 MtCO₂. Notably, China alone accounts for 1,385.2 MtCO₂ of these planned resources.

About Carbon Minefields

This newsletter provides monthly updates on global oil and gas expansion, reporting on every new oil and gas field and exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these fields and licences, translating them into total end-use emissions—that is, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) released into the atmosphere if the licensed oil and gas is extracted and burned. Finally, the monitoring of companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion activities. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas. 

Halting new fossil fuel projects is a key step in limiting global warming to 1.5°C and transitioning away from fossil fuels, as agreed by 198 countries at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28). Research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target. 

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development; we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2026) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2026) extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2026-03-04 and published with Rystad’s permission. End-use emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-4o mini. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on March 9, 2026. International Institute for Sustainable Development experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation. 

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected].