February 2026 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

Global oil and gas exploration entered 2026 in a state of contradiction: licensing activity remained strong, but the drilling results of January tell a more cautious story, underscoring how difficult and expensive it has become to turn acreage into barrels. Around 43,000 square kilometres—roughly the size of Denmark—was awarded for exploration during the month, mostly in frontier regions (geological areas with higher risk and difficulty), with Norway allocating 57 blocks through its yearly Awards in Pre-defined Areas, despite lower-than-usual applicant interest. Meanwhile, only 60 exploratory wells were completed globally, a 41% drop from January 2025, and discoveries were modest, at 70 million barrels across eight finds, weighed down by dry holes off the coasts of São Tomé and Príncipe and Côte d'Ivoire.

Throughout the year, the oil and gas industry is expected to continue investing in frontier exploration; however, finding costs have surged to around USD 7 per barrel, well above the USD 2–4 range of the mid-2010s. The difficulty in discovering new resources perhaps explains why, despite the slow start, exploratory drilling activity in 2026 is expected to be higher than in 2025. The industry is also focusing on areas that may yield the largest discoveries. Rystad has identified 42 high-potential wells planned globally this year, with roughly 40% of them in Africa and skewed toward frontier ultra-deepwater sites. West and Southern Africa oil and gas projects are particularly vulnerable to stranded asset risk: if resources are confirmed, project development would take years, with commercial production likely occurring at a time of declining global fossil fuel demand.

Most oil and gas discoveries this year will likely be incremental and come from mature basins or already-explored areas, not the frontier areas that the industry has been chasing. This is the case in South America, where Argentina, Guyana, and Brazil are expected to lead in fossil fuel extraction and collectively add over 700,000 barrels per day this year. They are expected to surpass Venezuelan production through 2030, as oil and gas extraction in the latter will require much more investment to be reactivated.

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded

In January 2026, 61 new oil and gas exploration licences were granted across four countries, containing an estimated 96.3 MtCO₂. Norway led the expansion, awarding licences containing roughly 40.3 million barrels of oil and 1,031.1 billion cubic feet of gas—if fully burned, this risks releasing 87.1 MtCO₂.

Oil and Gas Companies' Exploration Activities

Global oil and gas exploration capital expenditure (CapEx) into projects awarded in January 2026 reached USD 2,008.5 million, driven largely by Norway’s offshore auctions. Aker BP, Equinor, and Petoro led investments, spending a combined USD 1,015.2 million and securing the highest-emissions licences.

Rolling Annual Update

Licences Awarded 

In the last 12 months, governments issued 850 new oil and gas exploration licences. If combusted, these total reserves would emit 2,365.1 MtCO₂. June 2025 saw the single largest monthly award at 888.7 MtCO₂. Many of the highest-emitting licences were granted by nations with low fossil fuel dependence and limited transition capacity, led by Brazil, which accounted for the largest share of embodied carbon in awarded licences.

Note: The embodied carbon emissions from newly awarded licences are presented based on four country groups based on the Civil Society Equity Review (2023) categorization. Countries are grouped based on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production.  These indicators are measured based on countries' ability to deal with the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction. 

Rolling Annual Update

Exploration CapEx

Companies invested USD 32.8 billion in CapEx into exploration licences awarded in the last 12 months, averaging USD 2.7 billion per month and peaking in June 2025. ONGC, Chevron, and Petrobras together invested USD 6.5 billion in the last 12 months, driving this expansion. 

Outlook

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds 

Currently, 85 new oil and gas licences are open for bidding or under evaluation, which, if awarded, could unlock reserves emitting up to 16,401.4 MtCO2. Meanwhile, 88 exploration blocks are slated for licensing rounds over the next 6 months, with their fuel reserves carrying an estimated global emissions footprint of 2,877.1 MtCO2. Notably, China’s planned blocks alone would account for 1,012.1 MtCO2 if exploited. This threatens to undermine international climate goals by locking in decades of avoidable greenhouse gas emissions. 

About Carbon Minefields

This newsletter provides monthly updates on global oil and gas expansion, reporting on every new oil and gas field and exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these fields and licences, translating them into total end-use emissions—that is, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere if the oil and gas in these fields is extracted and burned. Finally, monitoring companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas.

Halting new fossil fuel projects is a key step in limiting global warming to 1.5°C and transitioning away from fossil fuels, as agreed by 198 countries at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28). Research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target.

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development; we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2026) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2026) extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2026-02-03 and published with Rystad’s permission. Embodied emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the IPCC emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-4o mini. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on February 10, 2026. International Institute for Sustainable Development experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation.

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected].