April 2026 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

The escalation of the conflict in Iran continues to rattle energy markets with the near complete standstill of any trade going through the Strait of Hormuz—which normally carries about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies—has kept Brent prices above USD 100 per barrel for most of the last month. While governments and consumers are scrambling to adjust to these high energy costs, the United States is responding domestically by racing to boost production.  

In March, the United States awarded 85 of the 91 new global exploration licences. These new leases—most of which are gas fields—are intended to boost LNG production as the  country looks to increase exports to Asian markets. U.S. LNG shipments in March hit a record of 562 billion cubic feet (Bcf), up from 477 Bcf in February, as existing export infrastructure ran beyond stated capacity and new facilities came online. Accordingly, U.S. producers are rushing to secure more gas acreage as shale fields—which are faster but more expensive to develop than most conventional methods—suddenly become economically viable. 

In fact, most of the new leases in the United States were awarded in Alaska’s North Slope, an environmentally sensitive area. Approximately 5,422 square kilometres was awarded to oil and gas companies in this region in March, with Shell and Repsol acquiring the largest share. These lease sales represent the largest award in Alaska to date, and mark Shell's notable return to the Arctic after its large investments there failed to find commercial reserves in the 2000s. 

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded 

In March 2026, 91 oil and gas exploration licences were awarded across three countries, giving companies access to resources that would emit an estimated 93.1 MtCO2 if burned. Greece awarded the licences with the largest potential end-use emissions, about 100 million barrels of oil (bbl) and 40 Bcf gas—equivalent to 46 MtCO2.

Oil and Gas Companies’ Exploration Activities

Companies invested almost USD 3 billion in global capital expenditure (CapEx) into projects awarded in March 2026. Chevron, Helleniq Energy, and BP accounted for USD 2,194 million, which they invested in Greece and the United States. 

Rolling Annual Update 

Licences Awarded 

Despite clear scientific consensus that further oil and gas expansion is unnecessary and harmful, governments awarded 824 new oil and gas exploration licences over the past year, which could potentially unleash 2,260.2 MtCO₂ if exploited. June 2025 alone accounted for 1,016.2 MtCO₂. Notably, countries with low fossil fuel dependence and limited transition capacity led this surge, further locking themselves into new long-term oil and gas developments, with Brazil topping the list for licences carrying the largest potential end-use emissions.

Note: The end-use carbon emissions from newly awarded licences are presented based on four country groups, based on the Civil Society Equity Review (2023) categorization. Countries are grouped based on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production. These indicators are measured based on countries’ ability to deal with the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction.

Exploration CapEx

Companies sank USD 33.3 billion into exploration projects awarded over the past 12 months, with June 2025 being the peak. That equates to roughly USD 2.8 billion in CapEx per award month. ONGC, Chevron, and Petrobras together accounted for USD 7.8 billion in exploration CapEx for these projects.

Outlook 

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds

Currently, 104 oil and gas licences are open for bidding or under evaluation, with the potential to unlock reserves that could emit 23,110.5 MtCO₂. Meanwhile, 77 exploration blocks are slated for licensing rounds over the next 6 months, with the potential to unlock an estimated 3,634.1 MtCO₂. Planned blocks in China alone account for the largest single-country share—1,385.3 MtCO₂ of end-use emissions if extracted and burned. These licences, if awarded, undermine global climate commitments and risk locking in fossil fuel infrastructure for decades. 

About the Carbon Minefields newsletter

This newsletter provides monthly updates on global oil and gas expansion, reporting on every new oil and gas field and exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these fields and licences, translating them into total end-use emissions—that is, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere if the licensed oil and gas is extracted and burned. Finally, the monitoring of companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion activities. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas. 

During the global stocktake at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28), countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. This is urgent to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Moreover, research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target. 

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD); we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2026) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2026) extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2026-04-10 and published with Rystad’s permission. Embodied emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the IPCC emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-4o mini. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on April 14, 2026. International Institute for Sustainable Development experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation. 

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected].