The Anatomy of a Credible Fossil Fuel Transition Roadmap

At this critical moment when spikes in oil and gas prices and tightening supply are translating directly into material hardship for people and communities, some 50 countries are coming together in Santa Marta looking for solutions for the transition away from fossil fuels. They are no longer discussing if the transition should take place, but rather how it should happen.

The coalition has a critical opportunity to help avoid future market shocks by committing to develop roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuel reliance. Such commitments would reinforce broader international efforts, including the COP 30 Presidency’s roadmap for the transition.

If the direction is clear, the real question is execution: what does a credible roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels actually require? Experts from all over the world are ready to support countries in this process. Research into how to design effective roadmaps by the International Institute for Sustainable Development, E3G, ECCO, SEFIA and Observatorio do Clima identifies nine elements, drawn from the strongest existing examples:

1. A roadmap needs a plan to coherently reduce both fossil fuel production and consumption

While the balance will differ depending on national circumstances—whether a country is a producer, consumer, exporter, or importer—both sides need to be addressed. The transition away from fossil fuels means reducing production, whilst also cutting demand through whole-economy electrification (industry, transport, heating and cooling, etc.), matched with power sector decarbonization. All of this will need to sit alongside a rapid scale-up of clean energy systems, including renewable power, grids and storage, energy efficiency measures, electrification, energy market reforms, digitalization, and clean fuels. Paths may differ depending on dominant fuel types, reliance on fossil fuel revenues, the scale of reserves, and other factors.

2. Energy access and affordability

Over 666 million people worldwide still have no basic access to electricity. Access to affordable energy is a fundamental driver of human well-being, economic growth, and the achievement of global development goals. Roadmaps should clearly set out how universal access and affordability will be achieved and sustained.

3. Fossil fuel subsidy reform

Fossil fuel subsidies reached USD 921 billion globally in 2024, and are expected to increase in light of the current oil and gas crisis. While there have been many diplomatic commitments to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, reform efforts have stalled. This is therefore a key entry point for roadmaps, as public finance for fossil fuels distorts markets, raising barriers to renewable energy scale-up and undermining energy security. Redirecting these subsidies and other incentives toward clean energy helps align public finance with the Paris Agreement (Article 2.1c). Roadmaps could set out action plans towards phasing out fossil fuel subsidies.

4. Just transition and economic diversification measures

Just transition measures are essential to support workers, communities, and regions dependent on fossil fuel industries during the transition. At the same time, diversification—through green industrial strategies—is critical to sustain revenues and prosperity of fossil fuel dependent states as fossil fuel demand peaks and declines through the transition. Importantly, justice principles must guide economic diversification strategies to ensure new transition investments do not replicate the “unjust legacy” of the fossil fuel industry, which often excluded local voices and prioritized resource extraction over community welfare and human rights. Roadmaps could include targets, strategies, policies and measures for both just transition and economic diversification.

5. Decommissioning and cleanup

The safe and just removal, decontamination, and dismantling of fossil fuel infrastructure and sites is essential for meeting both climate goals and the protection of communities and ecosystems. Roadmaps could include timelines and measures for decommissioning fossil fuel infrastructure.

6. Managed and manageable finance

Just, orderly, planned transitions depend on strong investment planning to secure finance for key infrastructure such as grid management and electrification, while also preparing for revenue shifts, managing stranded asset risks, and financial system stability—especially in fossil-fuel dependent economies. For developing countries, this hinges on access to dedicated, predictable, and reliable international financial support especially non-debt creating public finance and scaled blended finance that leverages concessional loans and grants to unlock private investment.

7. Strong participatory governance structures

This flows from the principle of procedural justice and it allows, in practice, strong participation by potentially marginalized groups.

8. Clear deadlines and transparency

Time horizons and robust monitoring, reporting, and verification systems ensure accountability and implementation. They also strengthen institutions through better data systems, regulatory oversight, and enforcement mechanisms. The best existing examples of roadmaps are time bound and oriented to clear delivery horizons.

9. Whole-of-government coordination 

National roadmaps won’t work without different ministers working together. Embedding just transition strategies within clear transitioning away from fossil fuels goals keeps social and economic measures aligned with the overall transition, preventing fragmented approaches and conflicting policy signals.

Looking Ahead to Santa Marta and Beyond

Not all elements will apply equally everywhere. For example, Global North countries do not face energy access challenges but may still need to address affordability, and not all countries provide fossil fuel subsidies. Still, the nine elements offer a strong, practical foundation for governments developing transition roadmaps.

The global transition away from fossil fuels is moving beyond pledges towards a decisive implementation phase. Political appetite for structured cooperation is evident. The central challenge is to combine ambition with realistic roadmaps for delivery: ensuring coherence, coordination, and implementation across national plans, international coalitions and sectoral initiatives. In the coming months – at Santa Marta and beyond, and through the COP 30 Presidency’s roadmap – governments have a real opportunity to accelerate the transition by designing roadmaps that are coherent, coordinated, and contain all the essential elements.

The lesson from the current crisis is clear: resilience is not built by shielding economies from change, but by accelerating it. The countries that move first will not only reduce their exposure to future shocks – they will shape the terms of the transition itself.