
Phaseout Pathways for Fossil Fuel Production Within Paris-Compliant Carbon Budgets
-
Wealthy countries must end oil and gas production by 2034 to keep the world on track for the 1.5°C goal and give poorer nations longer to replace their income from fossil fuel production.
-
Taking into account countries' differing levels of wealth, development, and economic reliance on fossil fuels, the poorest nations should be given until 2050 to end oil and gas production consistent with the Paris goals. They will also need significant financial support to transition their economies.
-
The Paris goals leave no room for any nation to increase oil and gas production; all will have to make significant cuts this decade. The richest countries must cut output by 74% by 2030; the poorest by 14%.
There is a growing consensus that, to align with the Paris goals, coal must be phased out from power generation (its most significant use) by 2030 in developed countries and by 2040 or 2050 in developing countries. But what about oil and gas? IISD commissioned the Tyndall Centre at The University of Manchester to research Paris-aligned phaseout pathways for oil and gas production in different countries.
The report, by Professor Kevin Anderson, a leading researcher at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, and Dr. Dan Calverley, warns that there is no room for any nation to increase production; instead, all will have to make significant cuts this decade.
The Paris Agreement requires that countries must act according to their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, meaning that developed countries must act first and fastest to mitigate emissions and must provide financial and other support to enable developing countries to mitigate. This report starts with carbon budgets published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and shares them among countries, in proportion to their ability to fund and enable a just transition for fossil fuel-dependent workers and communities.
Taking into account countries’ differing levels of wealth, development, and economic reliance on fossil fuels, the report says the wealthiest countries—which produce over a third of the world’s oil and gas—must cut output by 74% by 2030 and end oil and gas production by 2034. This action will keep the world on track for 1.5°C and give poorer nations longer to replace their income from fossil fuel production.
The poorest nations should be given until 2050 to end production, but they will also need significant financial support to transition their economies. However, even these countries must cut back by 14% by 2030, compared to today's production.
These challenging timelines arise because the 1.5°C carbon budget is smaller than many people realize. Furthermore, differentiated timelines deliver equity on their own. Significant financial transfers from the Global North to the Global South are prerequisites for delivering a fair phaseout schedule.
You might also be interested in
How to ditch fossil fuels without leaving workers behind
What can Canada learn from Denmark and Germany? As oil demand is forecast to drop, we take a look around the world for lessons about supporting workers and communities through energy transitions. Then, we hear from Canadians in communities closely tied to fossil fuels about their hopes and fears for the future.
Canada’s Energy Future Must Be Guided by Credible 1.5°C Scenarios
The Canada Energy Regulator has been directed to model the country's energy transition in a way that aligns with the Paris Accord goal of keeping global warming within 1.5°C. This is a first, and it's a key opportunity to help decision-makers prepare for radically different global energy markets.
Challenges, opportunities for agrivoltaics in India
A new study has evaluated the development of agrivoltaics in India, analyzing the challenges and opportunities involved in scaling up such projects, and exploring their potential for commercialization.
The Final Countdown: How Canada can end fossil fuel subsidies this year
The conversation on ending fossil fuel subsidies in Canada has been hanging like a dark cloud over the country, with years of pledges failing to lead to concrete action. But the skies may finally clear in the coming months with the release of Canada's long-awaited subsidies framework and policy.