Report

Climate Risk Profile: Greater Virunga Landscape

As part of this project, the Climate Adaptation and Protected Areas (CAPA) initiative has developed a set of climate risk profiles for each of the four target landscapes to illustrate the impacts of climate change within and around select protected areas and critical ecosystems. The profiles are based on the comprehensive climate risk and vulnerability assessment undertaken by the project in 2024, which informed the project NbS for adaptation and gender equality and social inclusion (GESI) strategies.

By Susan Sekirime, Daniel Abowe, Enock Mwangilwa on August 16, 2026

Key Findings

  • The GVL is becoming warmer, with more variable and intense rainfall: Mean annual temperatures are projected to rise by 2.7°C by 2040-2060. Heavy rainfall evens are also expected to intensify, increasing the risk of flash floods, mudslides and erosion.

  • Climate change is already affecting ecosystems, water security and climate-sensitive livelihoods. Drought, floods, and mudslides are damaging crops, water sources, and infrastructure, while declining habitat suitability and food and water availability are affecting wildlife.

  • Climate change affects people across the GVL unequally: Dependence on rain-fed agriculture and natural resources, limited livelihood alternatives, inadequate infrastructure, and unequal access to land and decision-making power increase vulnerability.

  • Restoring natural buffers and diversifying livelihoods can strengthen resilience in the GVL: Recommended measures include restoring erosion-prone slopes, riverbanks, and protected area buffer zones; adopting climate-smart agroforestry; removing invasive species, etc.

This GVL Climate Risk Profile provides an overview of the observed and projected climate changes in the Greater Virunga Landscape and their impacts on communities, biodiversity and ecosystems. It includes recommendations for Nature-based solutions for climate adaptation that can be implemented in the landscape, as well as measures to ensure adaptation is gender-responsive and socially inclusive. The profile is based on a comprehensive climate risk assessment and vulnerability analysis conducted at select sites in and around Queen Elizabeth National Park, Rwenzori Mountains National Park, and Bwindi Impenetrable National Park