Report

Climate Risk Profile: Kavango-Zambezi Landscape

This climate risk profile for the Kavango-Zambezi (KAZA) Landscape examining the observed and projected climate hazards, impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, and livelihoods, and potential nature-based solutions for adaptation. The Climate Adaptation and Protected Areas (CAPA) initiative has developed a set of climate risk profiles for each of the four target landscapes to illustrate the impacts of climate change within and around select protected areas and critical ecosystems. The profiles are based on the comprehensive climate risk and vulnerability assessment undertaken by the project in 2024, which informed the project NbS for adaptation and gender equality and social inclusion (GESI) strategies. 

By Susan Sekirime, Daniel Abowe, Enock Mwangilwa on August 14, 2026

Key Findings

  • KAZA is becoming hotter and less predictable climatically: Temperatures are rising across several parts of the landscape, while rainfall patterns vary considerably by location. By 2050, mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 3°C across all study areas.

  • Climate change is already affecting water, food security, and climate-sensitive livelihoods. Communities in the study sites reported declining access to water, reduced agricultural productivity, crop and livestock losses, and disruption to nature-based income sources.

  • Vulnerability in the landscape is shaped as much by social and economic conditions as by climate hazards. Limited livelihood diversification, dependence on natural resources, unequal land access, gender discrimination, and weak social support reduce the capacity of some to manage climate impacts.

  • Adaptation needs to become more planned, targeted, and inclusive: moving beyond largely spontaneous responses toward structured NbS informed by climate risks, while deliberately strengthening the participation, capacities, and access to resources for women and other underrepresent groups.

This report provides an overview of the observed and projected climate changes in the Kavango-Zambezi Landscape and their impacts on communities, biodiversity and ecosystems. It includes recommendations for Nature-based solutions for climate adaptation that can be implemented in the landscape, as well as measures to ensure adaptation is gender-responsive and socially inclusive. The profile is based on a comprehensive climate risk assessment and vulnerability analysis conducted at select sites in and around Bwabwat National Park in Namibia, Mosi-oa-Tunya and Sioma Ngwezi National Parks in Zambia, and Chizarira and Victoria Falls National Parks in Zambia