May 2025 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

In April 2025, approximately 165,000 square kilometres of acreage were granted for oil and gas exploration, primarily driven by India’s Open Acreage Licensing Policy Bid Round IX. This initiative is part of the Indian government’s ongoing strategy to enhance oil and gas production, with 38% of the awarded acreage situated in previously unexplored regions. Round X was launched in February, and licences are expected to be awarded in the latter half of the year. The total awarded acreage in Asia in 2025 is anticipated to continue the upward trend observed since 2022.

Other nations pursuing expansion in the oil and gas industry include Angola and Kenya. Angola aims to reverse its declining oil production, having initiated four bidding rounds over the past 5 years, with a projection of reaching 50 concessions by year-end. Kenya is set to commence its first oil and gas licensing round in September, offering 10 blocks, along with tax breaks and incentives, to foster development within the oil sector.

In the United States, various policies have been introduced to support the growth of the oil and gas industry. Lease Sale 262 in the Gulf of Mexico, due to launch in October, will test the industry response to these policy changes.

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded

Last month, 47 oil and gas exploration licences were awarded across six countries, with India awarding the largest volume of embodied emissions. India’s licences alone account for 441.7 million barrels of oil and 6,295.0 billion cubic feet of gas, with estimated emissions of 562.8 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2. China, Kazakhstan, Angola, Russia, and Hungary also awarded licences last month; together with India, they amount to 588 MtCO2 in estimated emissions. These figures highlight the substantial environmental impact that this fossil fuel production could have, underscoring the urgent need for an equitable transition to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Oil and Gas Companies' Exploration Activities

In the past month, the top investors in oil and gas exploration licences, with significant potential emissions from their reserves, were ONGC, Oil India, and Vedanta Resources, mainly operating out of India. Together, these companies have allocated approximately USD 1,647.3 million toward exploration projects, contributing to a global exploration capital expenditure (CapEx) of USD 2,330.7 million.

Rolling Annual Update

Licences Awarded

Over the last 12 months, 861 oil and gas exploration licences were awarded worldwide, with a total of 2268.7 MtCO2 in estimated emissions from burning the licensed reserves. August 2024 saw the peak month for awarded licences, with 594.3 MtCO2 in embodied emissions. Countries granting licences with the highest volume of embodied emissions were those with limited capacity to transition away from fossil fuels. Among these nations, India stands out. These figures highlight the need for international financial support for countries in the Global South to accelerate the transition to clean energy and diversify their economies.

Note: The embodied carbon emissions from newly awarded licences are presented based on four country groups based on the Civil Society Equity Review (2023) categorization. Countries are grouped based on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production.  These indicators are measured based on countries' ability to deal with the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction.

Exploration CapEx

In the past year, the total capital investment in oil and gas exploration projects has reached USD 24.3 billion. The projects awarded in January 2025 are attracting the highest investments, with an average monthly CapEx of USD 2.0 billion. Major players like Chevron, Shell, and Petrobras lead the investments, collectively contributing USD 5.2 billion to exploration projects awarded in the last 12 months.

Outlook

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds

As of last month, 42 licences were open for bidding or under evaluation for oil and gas exploration. Looking ahead, 447 blocks are planned for licensing rounds in the next 6 months. The estimated global emissions that would result from burning the fuel reserves from these planned blocks are significant: a total of 10,996 MtCO2. Notably, China has planned blocks with the largest volume of embodied emissions, potentially reaching 2,874.6 MtCO2 if the reserves are burned.

About the Carbon Minefields Newsletter

This newsletter provides monthly updates on oil and gas expansion globally, reporting on every new oil and gas exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these licences, translating them into total embodied emissions—that is, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere if the licensed oil and gas is extracted and burned. Finally, the monitoring of companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion activities. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas.

Halting new fossil fuel projects is a key step in limiting global warming to 1.5°C and transitioning away from fossil fuels, as agreed by 198 countries at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28). Research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target.

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD); we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2025) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2025) extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2025-05-14 and published with Rystad’s permission. Embodied emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-4o mini. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on May 16, 2025. International Institute for Sustainable Development experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation.

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at [email protected]a or [email protected].