Report

Sustainable Asset Valuation of the Nature-Based Infrastructure Transformation Program for Kisumu, Kenya

Nature-based infrastructure to improve Lake Victoria basin's ecosystem health

The nature-based infrastructure (NBI) transformation program in Kisumu, Kenya, brings together agroforestry, sanitation, and fisheries to restore ecosystems and strengthen community resilience. A Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) assessment shows that over 26 years, the program could generate USD 940 million in net benefits—about USD 3 in benefits for every dollar spent—while cutting health costs, creating new livelihoods, and opening opportunities for carbon finance.

By Andrea Bassi, Marco Guzzetti, Nathalia Niño on October 6, 2025

Key Findings

  • Investing in nature pays back. By combining agroforestry, WASH interventions, and fisheries, Kisumu could gain nearly USD 940 million in benefits over 26 years—around USD 3 in value for every dollar spent.

  • Healthier communities mean stronger economies. Better sanitation could prevent nearly USD 480 million in health costs by reducing waterborne diseases and improving quality of life.

  • Nature creates new funding opportunities. Carbon stored through trees and ecosystems is valued at more than USD 62 million, which is enough to cover capital costs and attract financing through carbon credits.

Kisumu County, on the shores of Lake Victoria, faces growing climate and environmental pressures. Floods, droughts, soil erosion, declining fisheries, and inadequate sanitation are undermining agriculture, food security, and public health. Runoff and invasive species further degrade the lake's ecosystem, deepening inequalities and weakening resilience. 

To address these challenges, Trust 2 Impact is piloting the NBI transformation program in the Nyando catchment. The program combines agroforestry and reforestation; riparian restoration; water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) management; and fish hatcheries to restore ecosystem health, improve water quality, reduce deforestation, and provide new livelihood opportunities. 

The NBI Global Resource Centre conducted a SAVi assessment of the program, in collaboration with Trust 2 Impact, to assess the initiative's performance compared to a business-as-usual baseline. Four NBI scenarios were evaluated: one combines all interventions, and three focus individually on agroforestry, WASH, and fisheries. 

The results confirmed that NBI is both cost-effective and transformative. Over 26 years, the integrated scenario could generate nearly USD 940 million in net benefits, equivalent to about USD 3 in value for every dollar invested. Sanitation measures could avoid nearly USD 480 million in health costs, fisheries interventions could deliver the highest return per dollar invested, and agroforestry and reforestation could generate steady revenues from crops, fruits, and carbon storage. Carbon valuation could add USD 62.85 million, surpassing capital expenditures and highlighting the potential of carbon credits as a financing tool. 

By linking ecological restoration with health, food security, and investment opportunities, the NBI transformation program offers a scalable model for climate resilience in Kenya and across East Africa.