How the Energy Transition Will Reshape Oil Markets

The direction, timing and progress of the energy transition will be key in shaping the future of oil, the most important commodity market in the world. The Ukraine crisis has given new prominence to energy security concerns and boosted calls for an “orderly” transition. However, climate experts also warn that a slow transition is not an option if we are to avoid a climate catastrophe — with the release last week of the latest UN climate science “synthesis” report, underscoring the urgency of meeting the Paris Agreement objective to limit global warming to well below 2°C. Effective policies to achieve this have yet to be introduced in any major country, or for the world as a whole, but what would meeting the Paris goals actually mean for future oil demand and supply, oil flows, benchmarks, prices and Opec?