Recent Progress in Applying Participatory Scenario Development in Climate Change Adaptation in Developing Countries Part II

Climate change adaptation strategies need to be multifaceted—in particular, they require stronger linkages with socioeconomic priorities.

This paper evaluates the value of scenario approaches in linking development priorities of countries to adaptation planning, synthesizing lessons learned through workshops held in three developing countries (Ghana, Honduras and Tajikistan). The results from these case studies indicate that scenario approaches provide specific benefits for adaptation planning, including capacity-building and awareness-raising. They thus complement those approaches linked to the use of climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments. The results show that to ensure effective integration of scenario development into adaptation planning, it is crucial to use additional qualitative and quantitative approaches to refine stakeholder information on i) climate change impacts on relevant sectors, such as agriculture and water; ii) socioeconomic trends and available capacities; and iii) relevant adaptation actions and their effectiveness at the national and subnational levels. The paper concludes by identifying further efforts needed to strengthen the argument for linking the broader socioeconomic context to better identify regional and national trends in developing countries.