Farming the Future: Agriculture and climate change on the Canadian Prairies

On the Canadian Prairies, modern farms are caught in the cross-currents of multiple fundamental changes, including a decline in the number of farms, an increase in average farm size, growing fertilizer and pesticide use, and the rising costs of inputs, land, machinery, and other expenses. On top of these, climate change will fundamentally affect the future of farming in the region.

The Prairies face a number of critical risks, from flooding to heat waves and invasive pests, that could jeopardize agricultural productivity and producer livelihoods. Producers may also be affected by the impacts of climate policies in export markets and changing consumer behaviours in response to climate change concerns.

Canada’s agricultural producers have a complicated relationship with climate change that goes beyond simply feeling impacts or adapting to them. The way we farm also has impacts that are large scale enough to matter in Canada’s broader greenhouse gas emission profile. Agriculture in the Prairies contributes 64% of all Canadian agricultural emissions. Across Canada, agricultural emissions are 12% of the national total.

The good news is that we already know how to reduce emissions through beneficial management practices (BMPs), many of which have benefits such as reducing input costs or helping producers to adapt. Many farmers have already adopted certain BMPs, including no-till. But government policy plays a critical role in supporting farm-level changes, and much more is needed to spur the adoption of climate-friendly practices.

This report summarizes climate risks to, and impacts from, farming on the Prairies. It examines the types of BMPs that could be beneficial and looks at gaps and opportunities in current federal and provincial policy to support their adoption. It also proposes next steps for how governments, industry and non-governmental organizations can support Prairie producers to move toward a new, more economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable vision of Prairie farming.