Climate change poses threat to peace and security in Middle East

WINNIPEG—June 2, 2009— A new report developed by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), commissioned by The Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and launched this week in the Middle East, has found that climate change may hold serious implications for peace and security in the Levant.

Climate models are predicting a hotter, drier and less predictable climate in the Middle East—a region already considered the world's most water scarce and where, in many places, demand for water already outstrips supply. For Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Israel and the occupied Palestinian territory, climate change threatens to reduce the availability of scarce water resources, increase food insecurity, hinder economic growth and lead to large scale population movements. This could hold serious implications for peace in the region, according to the report.

Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East (PDF - 4.4 mb) is the latest report on the links between climate change, peace and conflict by IISD, an independent Canadian policy think tank. Drawn from extensive consultations and workshops throughout the region, augmented by desk research, the report makes three key points:

• The legacy of conflict in the countries of the Levant undermines the ability of countries and communities in the region to adapt to climate change. The history of hostility and mistrust in the region greatly complicates efforts to collaborate over shared resources, to invest in more efficient water and energy use, to share new ways to adapt to climate change and to pursue truly multilateral action on climate change. Ultimately, climate change presents an even more serious challenge than it would otherwise.

• The report shows that climate change itself poses real security concerns to the region. It may increase competition for scarce water resources, complicating peace agreements. It may intensify food insecurity, thereby raising the stakes for the return or retention of occupied land. It may hinder economic growth, worsening poverty and social instability. It could lead to destabilizing forced migration, increased tensions over refugee populations, the increased militarization of strategic natural resources and growing resentment and distrust of the West.

• Nevertheless, the report points out there is much that national governments and authorities, civil society and the international community can do address the challenge of climate change, and in so doing, address some of the threats it may pose to regional peace and security. They can promote a culture of conservation in the region, help communities and countries adapt to the impacts of climate change, work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and foster greater cooperation on their shared resources.

Note to Editors:

For more information on preparations for the Climate Summit in Copenhagen in December 2009, see http://www.en.Cop15.dk

More of IISD's work on environmental change and security can be found at here.

For more information please contact the authors:

Oli Brown (obrown@iisd.org) or Alec Crawford (acrawford@iisd.org)

For additional information or assistance please contact:

• Nona Pelletier
  IISD Winnipeg
  Phone: +1 (204) 958-7740
  Cell: +1 (204) 962-1303
  E-mail: npelletier@iisd.ca

• Damon Vis-Dunbar
  IISD Geneva
  Phone: +41 (22) 917-8748
  Cell: +41 (78) 818-0501
  E-mail: dvis-dunbar@iisd.org