Using Systemic Approaches and Simulation to Support Transformation Toward Sustainable Mobility

Investments in transport and mobility are an important component of any development strategy: ​they result in job creation, provide access to markets and public services and, when low carbon, also reduce emissions and air pollution, avoid health costs, and improve health conditions.​

The general goals of this project are threefold​

  1. To review strategic frameworks, methods, and models for sustainable transport.​
  2. ​To generate evidence of the societal benefits of a variety of projects, considering direct, indirect, and induced social, economic, and environmental project outcomes.​​
  3. To inform decision making for upscaling investments in sustainable transport, also in the context of green and resilient recovery packages.​

The project will specifically estimate investment avoided costs and added benefits of sustainable transport based on social, economic, and environmental indicators with a view of informing and influencing decision making on project selection, financing strategy, and implementation

The project will also focus on the macro-economic level by providing an estimation of the contribution of sustainable transport to national sustainable development, considering its role in strengthening growth and in reducing public and private costs.

Project 1. India, FAME II Policy: Overview​

The National Automotive Board (heavyindustries.gov.in) has developed a funding scheme for e-buses and other electric commercial vehicles. ​This scheme is implemented via subsidies provided directly to cities by the government. ​In addition to subsidies, various state-level and city-level subsidies and tax exemptions exist to make electric vehicles (EVs) cost effective. ​We will assess the economic viability of EVs, considering social, economic, and environmental indicators, to assess value for money for public support.​

Project 2. India, Non Motorized Transport Plan in City of Coimbatore

The prime purpose of the Non Motorized Transport (NMT) Network plan is to prepare a comprehensive network of NMT routes in the city to be implemented over a period of 15 years. Featured in the 2020–2021 budget provision, it aims to achieve sustainable transport goals and is approved by Coimbatore City Municipal Corporation (CCMC).​ We will assess the economic viability of the plan, considering social, economic, and environmental indicators to assess value for money for public support.​ We will also estimate if the project will pay for itself, considering avoided costs and benefits. ​

Project 3. Indonesia, Bus Rapid Transit Cities: Overview​

The introduction of a bus rapid transit (BRT) system, following the example of Jakarta, is being planned in five Indonesian cities. Feasibility studies have been carried out, and a financing agreement has been confirmed for Bandung. ​The BRT is expected to improve access to transport while reducing congestion, energy costs, and exposure to air pollution.​ We will estimate the socio-economic and environmental benefits of the implementation of BRT in five cities and will assess their contribution to the national Net Zero plan. ​

We will finally assess if the project will pay for itself, and whether loans may be required for scaling up BRT countrywide, and to what extent.​

Project 4. Indonesia, Net Zero transport: Overview​

The Government of Indonesia has started exploring scenarios for Net Zero emissions by 2045, 2050, and 2060. BAPPENAS has released forecasts that include emissions-reduction trajectories and costs, considering a few high-level interventions. ​

Transport plays a critical role in the path toward Net Zero. Currently, the modelling work performed by BAPPENAS includes transport electrification and the use of hydrogen to replace liquid fuels. ​

We will analyze many other options in detail, considering short-, medium-, and long-term options, including the potential for avoided travel and the expansion of public transport (e.g., BRT, mass rapid transit). ​

Project 5. Albania, Tirana–Durres railway: Overview​

This project consists of the rehabilitation of Tirana–Durres train line and extension of the train line to the Tirana International airport. The total cost of the project is EUR 92 million. A European Bank for Reconstruction and Development loan of EUR 36.87 million will co-finance the construction phase. The project is managed by Albanian Railways.​

We will estimate avoided travel volume and time, reduced energy consumption, lowered CO2 and pollutants emissions, direct and indirect employment creation, and human health benefits.​