Review of International Assessments

An interpretive analysis of the findings of three global science assessments and the implications for Canadian agriculture

Given its export orientation and sensitivity to global forces of socio-economic and environmental change, the sustainability and competitiveness of Canadian agriculture requires that external conditions are constantly kept under review. With this purpose in mind, and using agriculture as its reviewing lens, IISD and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada undertook a project to analyze the results of three major multi-year international science assessments that were released to the public in 2007 and early 2008: UNEP's Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-4); the fourth report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); and the International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD).

The resulting report identifies and analyzes the major implications of the three assessments' findings for Canadian agriculture in light of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's main policy goals: to create a sector that is competitive and innovative, contributes to society's priorities, and proactively manages risk.

It provides context by briefly introducing the three scientific assessments, describing the overarching drivers of change, and presenting the key policy options they advocate. It also presents the results of the assessments' scenario exercises, based on various assumptions and choices about the future. The report concludes by looking at the usefulness of the three assessments for AAFC's purposes and proposing a number of questions that may stimulate further reflection on the future of agriculture in Canada.

An annex to the report contains summaries of each of the three assessments, organized under 11 topic headings: climate change; land degradation; urban sprawl; biodiversity; water quality; water supply; biotechnology; energy production and use; consumer demand; human health; and trade and markets. The summaries focus on current and emerging drivers and trends in the agricultural sector and their potential impacts on AAFC policies. These summaries inform the analysis, but given the length of the text, they have been assembled in the annex to this document.

The project outputs