Risks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Rijkswaterstaat identified the following climate risks to energy infrastructure:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/savi.iisd.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/savi-netherlands-web-14.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nPhysical Risk<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
An increase in temperature by 1.5\u00b0C.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n SAVi calculated to what extent this increase in temperature affects the performance of energy infrastructure. An increase in temperature decreases the energy efficiency of a coal power plant and makes wind energy, in comparison, more performant.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n Imposition of a carbon tax of EUR 16.27\/MWh throughout the operation of the asset.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n SAVi calculates the impact of this tax on energy infrastructure. The carbon tax negatively affects the performance of a coal power plant.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n Emissions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Valuations of carbon dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions based on their related health costs. For clean energy solutions such as the wind farm, this will result in an avoided health cost compared to coal.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n Labour income<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Valuation of income spending from additional employment created for construction and operations of the energy infrastructure. This is based on average income per worker and share of discretionary income spent in the Netherlands.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n Land use<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Valuation of benefits of retaining land for agriculture instead of power generation on land. This opportunity cost is calculated based on productivity per hectare of agriculture land and the land required for an onshore wind farm to generate 9.5 GW of electricity.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n Loss of fisheries<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Revenues lost for the fishing industry, as the wind turbines are located offshore.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n Sand mining<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Whether the construction of wind farms will constrain the ability to harvest sand.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n Recreation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Changes in revenues from tourism and recreation measured by changes in real estate prices in Ijmuiden and the surrounding coastal areas.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n Seaweed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The farming of seaweed in between the wind turbines developing into a new industry.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n The SAVi analysis compared the financial performance of the offshore wind farm to a coal power plant that generates the same output of 9.5 GW. The analysis of each of the two assets is organized under the following four scenarios: <\/p>\n\n\n\n Under the BAU scenario, coal emerged as the most profitable technology. It has a lower levelized cost of electricity, higher internal rate of return and a more attractive debt service coverage ratio and loan life coverage ratio.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n When correcting the Adding the impacts of a higher temperature, offshore wind came out as the clear winner with an IRR at a steady 17 per cent, while coal fell to 0 per cent.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n When adding in a carbon tax, SAVi estimates that the offshore wind project will create 2,780 jobs (estimated in full-time equivalents) <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n Rijkswaterstaat requested that we use SAVi to calculate the carbon emissions of different energy technologies. We calculated emissions across the asset life cycle, which includes fuel use during the manufacturing and installation of the power capacity. The emissions of coal- and gas-powered generations are significantly higher than for any other renewable option. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/savi.iisd.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/savi-netherlands-web-15.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nTransitional Risk<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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<\/figure>Summary of the SAVi Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/savi.iisd.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/savi-netherlands-web-23.png\")
<\/figure>Scenario 1: Business-as-Usual (BAU) <\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/savi.iisd.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/savi-netherlands-web-24.png\")
<\/figure>Scenario 2: The SAVi+ Scenario: BAU and the value of the externalities<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/savi.iisd.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/savi-netherlands-web-25.png\")
<\/figure>Scenario 3: The SAVi+ Scenario and the physical climate risk<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/savi.iisd.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/savi-netherlands-web-26.png\")
<\/figure>Scenario 4: The SAVi+ Scenario and the physical and transitional climate risk<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
SAVi analysis on the carbon emissions of different energy technologies (in million tonnes)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n