Latest study rebuts critics of Global Commission Report on climate and economics
Global warming can be kept to agreed levels (below 2C) without hurting economic development. U.S. policy-makers therefore need to redo their math and can afford to bolster their climate change policies to take more aggressive steps to mitigate climate change.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
WINNIPEG—September 19, 2014—Global warming can be kept to agreed levels (below 2C) without hurting economic development. U.S. policy-makers therefore need to redo their math and can afford to bolster their climate change policies to take more aggressive steps to mitigate climate change.
This is according to a newly released independent analysis based on a leading climate-economics model, and rebuts critics of the recently released New Climate Economy report by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate.
The DICE Model Reassessment, developed by Dr. Robert Repetto, an International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and United Nations Foundation senior fellow and Dr. Robert Easton, professor emeritus of applied mathematics at the University of Colorado, analyzed the most prominent climate economics assessment model (DICE), and found that recent estimates used by the U.S. and others prove to be too pessimistic about the ability to balance efforts to fight climate change while maintaining economic growth.
The analysis reveals that if major emitting nations, such as the USA, adopt efficient policies to reduce emissions, world output over the period 2010-2050 would expand at 2.28% percent per year and warming would stabilize below a 2 degree increase. That is virtually the same rate, 2.31% per year, at which GDP would grow if global warming were not kept to safe limits. However, in the more protective scenario, emissions per unit of output would decline more than twice as rapidly.
A subsequent phase of the work is now underway which will apply probability distributions to some of the key variables, to see how incorporating uncertainty in the model (that reflects the uncertainty seen in the climate science and economics literature) will affect the model’s results.
For more information please contact Sumeep Bath, media and communications officer, at sbath@iisd.org or +1 (204) 958 7740.
About IISD
The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is an award-winning independent think tank working to accelerate solutions for a stable climate, sustainable resource management, and fair economies. Our work inspires better decisions and sparks meaningful action to help people and the planet thrive. We shine a light on what can be achieved when governments, businesses, non-profits, and communities come together. IISD’s staff of more than 250 experts come from across the globe and from many disciplines. With offices in Winnipeg, Geneva, Ottawa, and Toronto, our work affects lives in nearly 100 countries.
You might also be interested in
G20 Finance Ministerials and World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings: Expert comment
G20 finance ministerials and World Bank/IMF spring meetings will take place this week in Washington. High on the agenda is the need to mobilize trillions of dollars of investment in the transition to clean energy.
Strategic Environmental Assessment for the Mining Sector
Strategic environmental assessments (SEA) are an essential tool for policy-makers working to develop a sector-wide vision for responsible mining.
Experts Call on G7 to Get Serious on Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform
At this month’s G7 meetings, ministers need to close the loopholes and show they are serious about tackling fossil fuel subsidies.
South African Fossil Fuel Subsidies Hit Record Highs as Country's Energy Crisis Deepens
South Africa's fossil fuel subsidies tripled between 2018 and 2023, hitting USD 7.5 billion, up from USD 2.9 billion 5 years earlier, a new report by IISD reveals.