Key Message

No longer is climate change just an environmental problem or an energy challenge. In recent years, it has been recognized as a core development challenge that carries potentially serious implications for international peace and security.

Climate Change and Security

What's New in Climate Change and Security?

  • Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East
    English (PDF - 4.4 mb) - Hebrew (PDF - 1 mb)
    In a region already considered the world's most water scarce and where, in many places, demand for water already outstrips supply, climate models are predicting a hotter, drier and less predictable climate in the Middle East. Climate change threatens to reduce the availability of scarce water resources, increase food insecurity, hinder economic growth and lead to large scale population movements. This could hold serious implications for peace in the region.

    This report examines whether the legacy of conflict in the Levant undermines the ability of the region to adapt to climate change, outlines the threats that climate change could pose to regional security, and suggests strategies that can be pursued for peace and sustainable development despite a changing climate.

  • Climate Change and Security in Africa
    English (PDF - 4 mb) - Français (PDF - 3.6 mb)
    Climate change–by redrawing global maps of water availability, food security, disease prevalence and coastal boundaries–could potentially increase forced migration, raise tensions and trigger new conflicts.

    Although Africa is the least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, it is almost universally seen as the continent most at risk of climate-induced conflict due to its reliance on climate-dependent sectors (such as rain-fed agriculture) and its history of resource, ethnic and political conflicts. In this report, prepared for the Nordic-African Foreign Ministers Forum in Copenhagen in March, 2009, IISD examines the threats that climate change could pose to security for the continent, as well as strategies for peace and development in a changing climate.


There is an increasing realization within the international community that climate change is an issue with implications across the full sweep of government policy. No longer is climate change seen as merely an environmental problem or an energy challenge. In recent years, it has become viewed as a core development challenge that carries potentially serious implications for international peace and security.

Climate change will redraw our coastlines, alter where we can grow food, change where we can find water, expose us to fiercer storms or more severe droughts and likely force large numbers of people to move from their homelands. Climate change will undermine the economic and agricultural base of many countries, particularly the most vulnerable developing countries.

Meanwhile, warming temperatures are changing the strategic balance in the Arctic by opening up new shipping routes and uncovering the oil and gas supplies previously under the ice. Globally, climate change will stress existing mechanisms for sharing resources like transboundary rivers and migratory fish stocks. It is clear that climate change holds the potential to exacerbate existing tensions and even trigger new ones.

IISD's work tries to understand how climate change could affect political and economic stability and to develop effective ways to address those problems. It attempts to cut through the rhetoric with clear analysis of where the areas of concern lie, and hopes to add nuance, texture and detail to the debate on the security implications of climate change.

Research