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5.

Water
Many people believe water scarcity is the main security issue of the future. The long-standing tensions between Israel and the Arab world are perhaps the most famous of these water tussles. But rest assured, the well of examples runs deep. On the Indian sub-continent, the flow of the Ganges is being disrupted by tree-felling in the Himalayan foothills - and the livelihoods of 300 million Indian farmers downstream hang in the balance, along with the welfare of Bangladesh which is threatened by increased flooding. Other flash-points include the Danube in Europe, the Zambeze and Nile in Africa, the Rio Grande in North America and the Mekong and Indus in Asia. As water resources become increasingly scarce in the face of growing population numbers and increased industrialization, water is becoming a supreme testing ground for the development of common security (see DI #1). While some see it as a potential peace-building tool, others see water scarcity as creating war. Can Israel and Jordan learn to share their liquid gold? Can nations use multi-stakeholder processes to negotiate international agreements that recognize the rights and responsibilities of all sides, as the USA and Canada did with the Great Lakes, or mainland Europe did with the once-revolting Rhine? In this, the UN Decade for Water, it makes sense to ponder questions like these. Argentina is hosting a conference on pan-American water concerns this month, and we expect similar meetings will follow on other continents. If recent predictions are any indication, we could be faced with worsening water wars before we know it. [sink or swim: the next great international security challenge?]

Word Watch Water shock n. to the near future what the 'oil shock' was to the recent past?

In Depth Postel, Sandra. Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity. New York: W.W. Norton, 1992. 238p.
Rached, Eglal and others, eds. Water Management in Africa and the Middle East: Challenges and Opportunities. Ottawa, Ontario: International Development Research Centre, 1996. 294p.

NOT HOT -

A Washed Up World
Some water policies are enough to bring tears to your eyes. California needs a good splash in the face to make farmers wake up to the wastefulness of transporting water hundreds of miles over mountains to grow crops in the desert. Water policies that promote thrift among home-owners but ignore the enormous costs of artificial industrial incentives are all wet. And industrial effluents that increase river temperatures and threaten natural fish habitat should really be landing some companies in hot water.

Virtual Ideas		 Attacking underlying causes of water conflict in South Africa