EL Niño - Every now and then (especially now) the warm waters of the tropical west Pacific move east towards South America triggering major changes in atmospheric jet streams. In 1982 to 1983 an unusually strong El Niño brought drought to the west Pacific Rim, southern Africa, southern India and Sri Lanka and North Africa, as well as cyclones to Pacific islands and floods to South America, western Europe and the Caribbean. In Utah, heavy rains caused the most expensive landslide in US history. In April 1983, south of Salt Lake City, the landslip flooded the town of Thistle created a 5 km lake, blocked three major highways and a railroad, and cost $400 million. This year's El Ni–o may be stronger than 1982 to 1983. It is already being blamed for the drought which allowed Indonesia's recent forestfires to last so long, choking much of SE Asia, and for the heavy rain which caused flooding in Somalia in 1997. El Niño seems to be wholly natural, but its effects, which impact at least 1 billion people, are comparable in scale to global warming. The problem with the greenhouse effect is a low signal-to-noise ratio: in 1998 watch for CO2 apologists blaming all global warming signals on El Niño noise.

INSURANCE: This trillion-dollar pillar of the global marketplace is the business community's SD trend-setter. It squirrels away $l60 billion a year against 'extreme events' the occasional big earthquake, drought or flood. Two such events in one year could use up half that reserve. 'It would seem that in the face of increased likelihood of extreme climatic events caused by global warming, that it is imperative for insurers to make every effort to mitigate their exposure', said Lloyds of London. (This means that if you want hurricane insurance, they'll call you back.) Frank Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of America, put it more bluntly, 'climate change could bankrupt the industry'. But Wall Street shouldn't worry: the insurance guys aren't turning into eco-freaks. This is strictly a bottom-line thing. Lots of small disasters are good for business; a few big ones aren't. So what are the insurance companies doing about it? Sixty of the real biggies have signed a charter pledging to work for sustainable development, and called for immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. After Kyoto, expect more of them to pull out of climate-related insurance. Big Norwegian insurer Storebrand is going further by starting to shift some of its reserves into shares in eco-efficient companies. This is serious stuff: insurers are major players in capital markets. If others follow Storebrand, Conference Of the Parties 4 talks might be a lot better than Conference Of the Parties 3. Meanwhile, it's the same old story. They'll sell flood insurance to anyone who doesn't live in a flood zone.

WATER WARS? Many large river basins are transnational. And many floods are magnified by upstream deforestation. So watch for flood-hit nations talking about environmental aggression from their neighbors. Bangladesh blaming India and Nepal, Iraq blaming Turkey, Argentine blaming Paraguay. Since Aswan, Egypt hasn't had a real flood, but Ethiopia must surely be to blame for silting up Lake Nasser. And watch out that UNEP's shared river-basin programme already underway among Zambezi basin nations, isn't a permanent victim of funding cuts. Modeled on UNEP's pioneering and widely-admired regional seas programme, it's a gleam of hope in a flooded, blame-casting world.

THE URBAN TSUNAMI - Former British Columbia premier Mike Harcourt is now working with the Chinese on sustainable development in the Pearl River Delta, the hinterland of Hong Kong - and possibly one the world's fastest-developing regions. Harcourt says the next 30 years will see an Ôurban tsunami,' when the population of developing word cities will grow by at least 2.5 billion - a profounder and far faster change than the industrial revolution. This breakneck urbanization will be overwhelming in Asia: already says Harcourt, 40-60% of the world's building cranes are in China. Watch how many of those 2.5 billion have to live and work in flood-prone areas.

FLOOD GROWTH STOCKS - Flood preparedness demands fast, accurate prediction. Expect booming demand for satellite-monitored rain-gauges and streamflow-metres, where the data can be accessed by cellphone and fed into computer models. And watch for aging dams and the anti-dam backlash. US First Nations and environmental groups want to remove two dams from the Elwha River in Washington state. The price-tag? Only $70m. Tens of thousands of other leaking or environmentally-suspect dams and dikes may need demolition in the early 21st century. A fiscal time-bomb for governments, rather like old nuclear reactors? True, but very good for the profits of contractors, maybe the same ones who built the dams in the first place. A more rational attitude to floods, involving flood-moderation rather than hubristic attempts to prevent all floods, will restore natural water cycles and wildlife habitat, reduce flood damage bills and perverse subsidies, and increase investment in positive change. Good for stockholders and the economy, for communities, and for the environment. Like all the best SD strategies, it's win-win-win.